Bowl Mania Analysis


Game: Bowl Mania
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Bowl Mania

How does it work?: The College Football bowl season runs from the beginning of December until the National Championship game in early January. There are 40+ bowl games that the contestant must select a winner. For Bowl Mania, there are two possible scoring systems that can be chosen. We describe each below.

Strategy: Our numbers in the analysis table are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

How to Play

The college bowl pick’em game can be played under two scoring systems on ESPN. The simplest approach is to make picks for the winner of each game, and you are scored based on the number of correct picks. The second scoring system requires you to both make picks and provide your confidence by ranking the games in the order of most to least likely to be correct. This adds a little more of a twist in the scoring to makes things more interesting. Click here for more information on how to sign up and play.

In our analysis table below, we have provided you with a good starting point for making your own picks. These are our recommended picks based on a combination of odds for each game using DRatings and 5Dimes.

For those using the confidence based scoring system, be aware that you must make your pick and confidence before each game begins. Be sure to read the rules here for more information on scoring, when the games lock, and how ties will be handled.

There is obviously some strategy involved in picking confidence since we do not know who will play in the National Championship game. For our pick on that game, we used a weighted average of all the possible scenarios to provide you with the current expectation on who is likely to win in case you want to go ahead and make all your picks and confidence selections now. Of course it’s likely better to wait on this game as far as the winner goes, but you may want to go ahead and lock the confidence position ahead of time or if you’re fully uncertain then you can always make this one have the lowest confidence.

2016-2017 College Football Bowl Mania Predictions

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
North Carolina Central Eagles
25.2%
25.2%
33
Grambling State Tigers
74.8%
74.8%
30
New Mexico Lobos
-280
71.5%
69.7%
71%
N/A
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners
+240
28.5%
30.3%
29%
10
Houston Cougars
-155
58.8%
64.2%
60.4%
N/A
San Diego State Aztecs
+135
41.2%
35.8%
39.6%
N/A
Appalachian State Mountaineers
+105
46.8%
51.8%
48.3%
2
Toledo Rockets
-125
53.2%
48.2%
51.7%
23
UCF Knights
-220
65.8%
69.6%
66.9%
N/A
Arkansas State Red Wolves
+180
34.2%
30.4%
33.1%
15
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
-172
61.4%
63.7%
62.1%
N/A
LA-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
+152
38.6%
36.3%
37.9%
N/A
Central Michigan Chippewas
+355
21.2%
23.2%
21.8%
37
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
-445
78.8%
76.8%
78.2%
N/A
Memphis Tigers
+170
35.7%
36.2%
35.9%
22
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
-200
64.3%
63.8%
64.2%
35
Brigham Young Cougars
-340
74.6%
78.3%
75.7%
N/A
Wyoming Cowboys
+280
25.4%
21.7%
24.3%
N/A
Idaho Vandals
+415
18.8%
30.4%
22.3%
36
Colorado State Rams
-525
81.2%
69.6%
77.7%
N/A
Eastern Michigan Eagles
+155
38.1%
33.2%
36.6%
18
Old Dominion Monarchs
-175
61.9%
66.8%
63.4%
N/A
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
+103
47.2%
48.7%
47.7%
3
Navy Midshipmen
-123
52.8%
51.3%
52.4%
N/A
Ohio Bobcats
+155
38.1%
32.1%
36.3%
20
Troy Trojans
-175
61.9%
67.9%
63.7%
N/A
Hawaii Warriors
32.9%
32.9%
24
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
67.1%
67.1%
N/A
Miami (OH) RedHawks
+380
20.1%
12.5%
17.8%
41
Mississippi State Bulldogs
-475
79.9%
87.5%
82.2%
4
Maryland Terrapins
-122
52.6%
60%
54.8%
N/A
Boston College Eagles
+102
47.4%
40%
45.2%
14
North Carolina State Wolfpack
-185
62.8%
60%
62%
N/A
Vanderbilt Commodores
+160
37.2%
40%
38%
34
Army Black Knights
-335
74.3%
77.7%
75.3%
N/A
North Texas Mean Green
+275
25.7%
22.3%
24.7%
39
Temple Owls
-500
80.6%
78.3%
79.9%
N/A
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
+400
19.4%
21.7%
20.1%
N/A
Minnesota Golden Gophers
+220
30.2%
35.2%
31.7%
26
Washington State Cougars
-260
69.8%
64.8%
68.3%
28
Boise State Broncos
-300
72.4%
67.1%
70.8%
N/A
Baylor Bears
+250
27.6%
32.9%
29.2%
21
Pittsburgh Panthers
-220
65.8%
60.1%
64.1%
N/A
Northwestern Wildcats
+180
34.2%
39.9%
35.9%
N/A
West Virginia Mountaineers
+130
42%
41.6%
41.9%
7
Miami (FL) Hurricanes
-150
58%
58.4%
58.1%
N/A
Indiana Hoosiers
+265
26.4%
23.1%
25.4%
32
Utah Utes
-325
73.6%
76.9%
74.6%
8
Texas A&M Aggies
-135
55.3%
69.5%
59.6%
N/A
Kansas State Wildcats
+115
44.7%
30.5%
40.4%
38
South Florida Bulls
-420
77.8%
79.9%
78.4%
N/A
South Carolina Gamecocks
+335
22.2%
20.1%
21.6%
N/A
Arkansas Razorbacks
+235
28.9%
40.2%
32.3%
25
Virginia Tech Hokies
-275
71.1%
59.8%
67.7%
N/A
Oklahoma State Cowboys
+150
38.8%
32.1%
36.8%
17
Colorado Buffaloes
-170
61.2%
67.9%
63.2%
1
Georgia Bulldogs
-125
53.2%
47.8%
51.6%
N/A
TCU Horned Frogs
+105
46.8%
52.2%
48.4%
19
Stanford Cardinal
-175
61.9%
67.6%
63.6%
N/A
North Carolina Tar Heels
+155
38.1%
32.4%
36.4%
N/A
Nebraska Cornhuskers
+140
40.4%
32.6%
38.1%
13
Tennessee Volunteers
-160
59.6%
67.4%
61.9%
N/A
South Alabama Jaguars
+400
19.4%
17.4%
18.8%
40
Air Force Falcons
-500
80.6%
82.6%
81.2%
31
Michigan Wolverines
-255
70.6%
73%
71.3%
N/A
Florida State Seminoles
+235
29.4%
27%
28.7%
9
LSU Tigers
-170
61.2%
57%
59.9%
N/A
Louisville Cardinals
+150
38.8%
43%
40.1%
12
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
-175
61.9%
59.9%
61.3%
N/A
Kentucky Wildcats
+155
38.1%
40.1%
38.7%
N/A
Washington Huskies
+685
12.4%
25.4%
16.3%
42
Alabama Crimson Tide
-875
87.6%
74.6%
83.7%
11
Ohio State Buckeyes
-153
59.5%
64.4%
61%
N/A
Clemson Tigers
+143
40.5%
35.6%
39%
N/A
Western Michigan Broncos
+260
27.2%
35.3%
29.6%
27
Wisconsin Badgers
-290
72.8%
64.7%
70.4%
6
Florida Gators
-135
55.3%
55.9%
55.5%
N/A
Iowa Hawkeyes
+115
44.7%
44.1%
44.5%
29
USC Trojans
-265
71.5%
69.6%
70.9%
N/A
Penn State Nittany Lions
+245
28.5%
30.4%
29.1%
N/A
Auburn Tigers
+167
36.9%
38.6%
37.4%
16
Oklahoma Sooners
-178
63.1%
61.4%
62.6%
5
Winner of Washington/Alabama
55%
55%
N/A
Winner of Ohio State/Clemson
45%
45%

Results

2015-16 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 626.3 Actual Points: 678 Point Diff: +51.7
Projected Wins: 27.3 Actual Wins: 29 Win Diff: +1.7
Projected Losses: 14.7 Actual Losses: 13

2015-2016 Bowl Season

Pick Probability Confidence Result
Virginia Tech Hokies 82.8% 42 Win
Arizona Wildcats 78% 41 Win
Arkansas Razorbacks 77.9% 40 Win
Washington Huskies 75.6% 39 Win
Alabama Crimson Tide 75.2% 38 Win
California Golden Bears 74% 37 Win
Tennessee Volunteers 73.7% 36 Win
Appalachian State Mountaineers 72.8% 35 Win
Bowling Green Falcons 72.7% 34 Loss
LSU Tigers 71.6% 33 Win
Florida State Seminoles 71.3% 32 Loss
Boise State Broncos 70.9% 31 Win
Georgia Bulldogs 70.3% 30 Win
Ohio State Buckeyes 69.9% 28.5 Win
Stanford Cardinal 69.9% 28.5 Win
UCLA Bruins 69.1% 27 Loss
Utah State Aggies 68.9% 26 Loss
Ole Miss Rebels 68.7% 25 Win
Marshall Thundering Herd 66.1% 24 Win
Minnesota Gophers 65.3% 23 Win
Michigan Wolverines 64.9% 22 Win
Mississippi State Bulldogs 64.7% 21 Win
San Jose State Spartans 63.2% 20 Win
Navy Midshipmen 63% 19 Win
Oklahoma Sooners 60.6% 18 Loss
Colorado State Rams 60.3% 17 Loss
Western Michigan Broncos 60.2% 16 Win
Baylor Bears 60% 14.5 Win
USC Trojans 60% 14.5 Loss
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 59.7% 13 Win
Utah Utes 58.6% 12 Win
North Carolina A&T Aggies 56% 11 Win
Texas A&M Aggies 55.1% 10 Loss
Lousiana Tech Bulldogs 54.8% 9 Win
Cincinnati Bearcats 54.7% 8 Loss
Washington State Cougars 53.6% 7 Win
Auburn Tigers 53.5% 5.5 Win
TCU Horned Frogs 53.5% 5.5 Win
Temple Owls 52.3% 4 Loss
Alabama Crimson Tide 51.7% 3 Win
Arizona State Sun Devils 51.1% 2 Loss
Indiana Hoosiers 50.6% 1 Loss