Bowl Mania Analysis


Game: Bowl Mania
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Bowl Mania

How does it work?: The College Football bowl season runs from the beginning of December until the National Championship game in early January. There are 40+ bowl games that the contestant must select a winner. For Bowl Mania, there are two possible scoring systems that can be chosen. We describe each below.

Strategy: Our numbers in the analysis table are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

How to Play

The college bowl pick’em game can be played under two scoring systems on ESPN. The simplest approach is to make picks for the winner of each game, and you are scored based on the number of correct picks. The second scoring system requires you to both make picks and provide your confidence by ranking the games in the order of most to least likely to be correct. This adds a little more of a twist in the scoring to makes things more interesting. Click here for more information on how to sign up and play.

In our analysis table below, we have provided you with a good starting point for making your own picks. These are our recommended picks based on a combination of odds for each game using DRatings and 5Dimes.

For those using the confidence based scoring system, be aware that you must make your pick and confidence before each game begins. Be sure to read the rules here for more information on scoring, when the games lock, and how ties will be handled.

There is obviously some strategy involved in picking confidence since we do not know who will play in the National Championship game. For our pick on that game, we used a weighted average of all the possible scenarios to provide you with the current expectation on who is likely to win in case you want to go ahead and make all your picks and confidence selections now. Of course it’s likely better to wait on this game as far as the winner goes, but you may want to go ahead and lock the confidence position ahead of time or if you’re fully uncertain then you can always make this one have the lowest confidence.

2017-2018 College Football Bowl Mania Predictions

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
Grambling Tigers
46.6%
46.6%
6
North Carolina A&T Aggies
53.4%
53.4%
31
Troy Trojans
-245
69.8%
70.3%
70%
N/A
North Texas Mean Green
+225
30.2%
29.7%
30.1%
26
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
-230
68.4%
59.3%
65.7%
N/A
Georgia State Panthers
+210
31.6%
40.7%
34.3%
N/A
Boise State Broncos
+260
27.2%
47.3%
33.2%
28
Oregon Ducks
-290
72.8%
52.7%
66.8%
N/A
Marshall Thundering Herd
+200
32.7%
41.9%
35.5%
22
Colorado State Rams
-220
67.3%
58.1%
64.5%
N/A
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
+155
38.6%
39.8%
39%
19
Arkansas State Red Wolves
-165
61.4%
60.2%
61%
N/A
Akron Zips
+1250
7.2%
22%
11.6%
41
Florida Atlantic Owls
-2000
92.8%
78%
88.4%
N/A
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
+175
34.9%
28.4%
33%
29
Southern Methodist Mustangs
-210
65.1%
71.6%
67.1%
34
Temple Owls
-275
71.1%
75%
72.3%
N/A
Florida International Golden Panthers
+235
28.9%
25%
27.7%
N/A
UAB Blazers
+255
27.1%
16.5%
23.9%
39
Ohio Bobcats
-310
72.9%
83.5%
76.1%
N/A
Central Michigan Chippewas
-102
48.3%
53.2%
49.8%
1
Wyoming Cowboys
-118
51.7%
46.8%
50.2%
N/A
Texas Tech Red Raiders
+115
44.7%
39.8%
43.2%
13
South Florida Bulls
-135
55.3%
60.2%
56.8%
32
San Diego State Aztecs
70.3%
70.3%
N/A
Army Black Knights
29.7%
29.7%
N/A
Appalachian State Mountaineers
+255
27.1%
28.2%
27.4%
35
Toledo Rockets
-310
72.9%
71.8%
72.6%
N/A
Fresno State Bulldogs
+115
44.7%
37%
42.4%
16
Houston Cougars
-135
55.3%
63%
57.6%
24
Utah Utes
-275
71.1%
50.8%
65%
N/A
West Virginia Mountaineers
+235
28.9%
49.2%
35%
25
Duke Blue Devils
-210
65.1%
66.8%
65.6%
N/A
Northern Illinois Huskies
+175
34.9%
33.2%
34.4%
9
Kansas State Wildcats
-130
54.3%
56.4%
54.9%
N/A
UCLA Bruins
+110
45.7%
43.6%
45.1%
N/A
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
+500
16%
8.7%
13.8%
40
Florida State Seminoles
-700
84%
91.3%
86.2%
17
Iowa Hawkeyes
-145
57.1%
59.8%
57.9%
N/A
Boston College Eagles
+125
42.9%
40.2%
42.1%
11
Arizona Wildcats
-170
61.2%
44%
56%
N/A
Purdue Boilermakers
+150
38.8%
56%
44%
N/A
Texas Longhorns
+132
41.7%
62.9%
48.1%
3
Missouri Tigers
-152
58.3%
37.1%
51.9%
N/A
Virginia Cavaliers
48%
48%
4
Navy Midshipmen
52%
52%
N/A
Virginia Tech Hokies
+190
33.1%
42.5%
35.9%
21
Oklahoma State Cowboys
-230
66.9%
57.5%
64.1%
N/A
Stanford Cardinal
+120
43.8%
41.9%
43.2%
15
TCU Horned Frogs
-140
56.2%
58.1%
56.8%
8
Washington State Cougars
-152
58.3%
46.3%
54.7%
N/A
Michigan State Spartans
+132
41.7%
53.7%
45.3%
18
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
-152
58.3%
63.7%
59.9%
N/A
Texas A&M Aggies
+132
41.7%
36.3%
40.1%
30
North Carolina State Wolfpack
-245
68.4%
73.3%
69.9%
N/A
Arizona State Sun Devils
+205
31.6%
26.7%
30.1%
N/A
Kentucky Wildcats
+245
28%
24.1%
26.8%
36
Northwestern Wildcats
-290
72%
75.9%
73.2%
N/A
New Mexico State Aggies
+158
37.6%
34.2%
36.6%
20
Utah State Aggies
-180
62.4%
65.8%
63.4%
N/A
USC Trojans
+248
28.3%
29.6%
28.7%
33
Ohio State Buckeyes
-270
71.7%
70.4%
71.3%
27
Louisville Cardinals
-260
69.8%
58.1%
66.3%
N/A
Mississippi State Bulldogs
+220
30.2%
41.9%
33.7%
N/A
Iowa State Cyclones
+145
39.6%
51.7%
43.2%
14
Memphis Tigers
-165
60.4%
48.3%
56.8%
N/A
Washington Huskies
+115
45.6%
37.8%
43.3%
12
Penn State Nittany Lions
-125
54.4%
62.2%
56.7%
23
Wisconsin Badgers
-245
69.8%
52.4%
64.6%
N/A
Miami (FL) Hurricanes
+225
30.2%
47.6%
35.4%
37
Michigan Wolverines
-310
72.9%
76.3%
73.9%
N/A
South Carolina Gamecocks
+255
27.1%
23.7%
26.1%
N/A
UCF Knights
+305
24.3%
27%
25.1%
38
Auburn Tigers
-335
75.7%
73%
74.9%
N/A
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
+137
40.9%
69.8%
49.6%
2
LSU Tigers
-157
59.1%
30.2%
50.4%
5
Georgia Bulldogs
-125
54.4%
50.4%
53.2%
N/A
Oklahoma Sooners
+115
45.6%
49.6%
46.8%
7
Alabama Crimson Tide
-140
57.3%
45.4%
53.7%
N/A
Clemson Tigers
+130
42.7%
54.6%
46.3%
N/A
Georgia vs Oklahoma Win
45%
45%
10
Alabama vs Clemson Win
55%
55%

Results

2016-2017 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 645.2 Actual Points: 615 Point Diff: -30.2
Projected Wins: 28.0 Actual Wins: 26 Win Diff: -2.0
Projected Losses: 14.0 Actual Losses: 16

2016-2017 Bowl Season Pick Results

Pick Probability Confidence Result
Grambling State Tigers 74.8% 33 Win
New Mexico Lobos 71% 30 Win
Houston Cougars 60.4% 10 Loss
Toledo Rockets 51.7% 2 Loss
UCF Knights 66.9% 23 Loss
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 62.1% 15 Win
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 78.2% 37 Win
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 64.2% 22 Win
Brigham Young Cougars 75.7% 35 Win
Colorado State Rams 77.7% 36 Loss
Old Dominion Monarchs 63.4% 18 Win
Navy Midshipmen 52.4% 3 Loss
Troy Trojans 63.7% 20 Win
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 67.1% 24 Loss
Mississippi State Bulldogs 82.2% 41 Win
Maryland Terrapins 54.8% 4 Loss
North Carolina State Wolfpack 62% 14 Win
Army Black Knights 75.3% 34 Win
Temple Owls 79.9% 39 Loss
Washington State Cougars 68.3% 26 Loss
Boise State Broncos 70.8% 28 Loss
Pittsburgh Panthers 64.1% 21 Loss
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 58.1% 7 Win
Utah Utes 74.6% 32 Win
Texas A&M Aggies 59.6% 8 Loss
South Florida Bulls 78.4% 38 Win
Virginia Tech Hokies 67.7% 25 Win
Colorado Buffaloes 63.2% 17 Loss
Georgia Bulldogs 51.6% 1 Win
Stanford Cardinal 63.6% 19 Win
Tennessee Volunteers 61.9% 13 Win
Air Force Falcons 81.2% 40 Win
Michigan Wolverines 71.3% 31 Loss
LSU Tigers 59.9% 9 Win
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 61.3% 12 Win
Alabama Crimson Tide 83.7% 42 Win
Ohio State Buckeyes 61% 11 Loss
Wisconsin Badgers 70.4% 27 Win
Florida Gators 55.5% 6 Win
USC Trojans 70.9% 29 Win
Oklahoma Sooners 62.6% 16 Win
Winner of Washington/Alabama 55% 5 Loss

2015-2016 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 626.3 Actual Points: 678 Point Diff: +51.7
Projected Wins: 27.3 Actual Wins: 29 Win Diff: +1.7
Projected Losses: 14.7 Actual Losses: 13