Champions League Pick’em Analysis


Game: Champions League Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Champions League Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The Champions League Season runs from the beginning of September to the end of May or early June. There are 111 matches in total worth various amounts of points that increase in value as the UEFA competition progresses. This following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Group Stage:
There are six legs of the group stage. The contestant is to pick either the Away team to win or draw, or the home team to win. The contestant will receive 1 point per correct pick (96 matches = 96 points total)

Playoff Stage:
This round works a little bit differently then the Group Stage in that the contestant is to pick which team ADVANCES to the next stage. The teams that play each other are pitted together in a 2 leg home-and-home series to determine who makes the next round. The points work a little differently as well. Here is the breakdown of points for each of the rounds in the Playoff Stage:
Round of 16: 4 points per correct pick (8 matches = 32 points total)
Quarterfinals: 8 points per correct pick (4 matches = 32 points total)
Semifinals: 16 points per correct pick (2 matches = 32 points total)
Final: 16 points per correct pick (1 match = 16 points max)

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites (or the side with the highest % chance of winning the proposition.)

Champions League Pick’em Analysis – Playoff Round

Round Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob Result
Final Real Madrid -130 54.3% 58.9% 55.7% TBD
Atletico Madrid +110 45.7% 41.1% 44.3%
Semifinals Manchester City +215 29.8% 29.2% 29.6% Win
Real Madrid -297 70.2% 70.8% 70.4%
Semifinals FC Bayern Munich -218 64.2% 68.6% 65.5% Loss
Atletico Madrid +162 35.8% 31.4% 34.5%
Quarterfinals FC Bayern Munich -852 84.7% 90.5% 86.4% Win
Benfica +519 15.3% 9.5% 13.6%
Quarterfinals Barcelona -305 70.3% 65.5% 68.9% Loss
Atletico Madrid +215 29.7% 34.5% 31.1%
Quarterfinals VfL Wolfsburg +527 15.1% 10.4% 13.7% Win
Real Madrid -884 84.9% 89.6% 86.3%
Quarterfinals Paris Saint-Germain -200 63.1% 61.5% 62.6% Loss
Manchester City +156 36.9% 38.5% 37.4%
Round of 16 Chelsea FC +117 43.3% 39.4% 42.1% Win
Paris Saint-Germain -152 56.7% 60.6% 57.9%
Round of 16 Zenit St. Petersburg -140 53.4% 61.2% 55.7% Win
Benfica -104 46.6% 38.8% 44.3%
Round of 16 VfL Wolfsburg -272 68.7% 73.9% 70.3% Win
KAA Gent +200 31.3% 26.1% 29.7%
Round of 16 Real Madrid -563 79.1% 93.2% 83.3% Win
AS Roma +345 20.9% 6.8% 16.7%
Round of 16 Barcelona -500 78.5% 81.4% 79.4% Win
Arsenal +338 21.5% 18.6% 20.6%
Round of 16 FC Bayern Munich -412 75.3% 66.5% 72.7% Win
Juventus +278 24.7% 33.5% 27.3%
Round of 16 Atletico Madrid -455 76.6% 91.9% 81.2% Win
PSV Eindhoven +300 23.4% 8.1% 18.8%
Round of 16 Manchester City -317 71.4% 77.5% 73.2% Win
Dynamo Kiev +228 28.6% 22.5% 26.8%

See below for results of the previous stages.

2015-16 UEFA Champions League Pick’em Results

Projected Wins Actual Wins Projected Points Actual Points
Round 1 11.9 12 11.9 12
Round 2 11.2 12 11.2 12
Round 3 11 11 11 11
Round 4 10.9 13 10.9 13
Round 5 11.4 10 11.4 10
Round 6 11.1 9 11.1 9
Round of 16 5.73 8 22.92 32
Quarterfinals 3 2 24 16
Semifinals 1.35 1 21.6 16
Final 0.56 8.96
Total 78.14 78 153.94 131
Round 1
Pick Probability Result
Real Madrid: To Win 81.1% Win
Machester City: To Win 54% Loss
Machester United: To Win or Draw 75.4% Loss
Paris Saint-Germain: To Win 84.6% Win
Sevilla: To Win 59.1% Win
Atletico Madrid: To Win or Draw 86.3% Win
Benfica: To Win 79.3% Win
VFl Wolfsburg: To Win 53.4% Win
Barcelona: To Win or Draw 84.6% Win
Bayer Leverkusen: To Win 78.9% Win
FC Bayern Munich: To Win or Draw 87.8% Win
Arsenal: To Win or Draw 86% Loss
Chelsea FC: To Win 85% Win
Porto: To Win or Draw 67.4% Win
Valencia: To Win 56.5% Loss
Lyon: To Win or Draw 71.1% Win
Round 2
Pick Probability Result
Barcelona: To Win 74.9% Win
AS Roma: To Win or Draw 81.6% Loss
FC Bayern Munich: To Win 85.3% Win
Arsenal: To Win 66.9% Loss
Chelsea FC: To Win or Draw 65.9% Loss
Zenit St. Petersburg: To Win 65% Win
Valencia: To Win or Draw 64.6% Win
Dynamo Kiev: To Win or Draw 77.3% Win
Galatasaray: To Win or Draw 67% Win
Real Madrid: To Win or Draw 92.7% Win
Juventus: To Win 52.6% Win
CSKA Moscow: To Win 52.6% Win
Paris Saint-Germain: To Win or Draw 76.5% Win
Manchester United: To Win 53.4% Win
Manchester City: To Win or Draw 78.9% Win
Atletico Madrid: To Win 64.2% Loss
Round 3
Pick Probability Result
Barcelona: To Win or Draw 89.1% Win
Bayer Leverkusen: To Win 51.9% Loss
FC Bayern Munich: To Win or Draw 77.4% Loss
Chelsea FC: To Win or Draw 69.1% Win
Olympiakos: To Win or Draw 65% Win
Porto: To Win 79.3% Win
Zenit St. Petersburg: To Win 50.9% Win
Valencia: To Win 67.3% Win
Real Madrid: To Win or Draw 66.4% Win
Juventus: To Win 69.8% Loss
VfL Wolfsburg: To Win 61% Win
Manchester City: To Win 57.7% Win
Manchester United: To Win or Draw 67% Win
Benfica: To Win or Draw 72% Loss
FC Shakhtar Donetsk: To Win or Draw 74.9% Loss
Atletico Madrid: To Win 83.1% Win
Round 4
Pick Probability Result
Atletico Madrid: To Win or Draw 92.2% Win
Real Madrid: To Win 55.9% Win
Juventus: To Win or Draw 73.9% Win
VfL Wolfsburg: To Win or Draw 67.1% Loss
Manchester City: To Win or Draw 62.8% Win
Manchester United: To Win 62.8% Win
Benfica: To Win 61.7% Win
FC Shakhtar Donetsk: To Win 65.1% Win
Barcelona: To Win 90.2% Win
Bayer Leverkusen: To Win or Draw 56.5% Loss
FC Bayern Munich: To Win 64.7% Win
Chelsea FC: To Win 63.9% Win
Olympiakos: To Win 56.2% Win
Porto: To Win or Draw 85.2% Win
Zenit St. Petersburg: To Win or Draw 59.2% Win
Valencia: To Win or Draw 75.1% Loss
Round 5
Pick Probability Result
Bayer Leverkusen: To Win or Draw 82.1% Win
Valencia: To Win or Draw 58.2% Loss
Barcelona: To Win 70.5% Win
FC Bayern Munich: To Win 81.4% Win
Arsenal: To Win 78% Win
Chelsea FC: To Win or Draw 89.3% Win
Porto: To Win 58.6% Loss
Lyon: To Win 57.1% Loss
Benfica: To Win or Draw 80.9% Win
VfL Wolfsburg: To Win or Draw 56.6% Win
Real Madrid: To Win or Draw 80.5% Win
Manchester City: To Win or Draw 55.6% Loss
Manchester United: To Win 67.8% Loss
Paris Saint-Germain: To Win or Draw 89.2% Win
Sevilla: To Win or Draw 60.7% Loss
Atletico Madrid: To Win 75.2% Win
Round 6
Pick Probability Result
Real Madrid: To Win 88.6% Win
Juventus: To Win or Draw 61.5% Loss
CSKA Moscow: To Win or Draw 54.5% Loss
Paris Saint-Germain: To Win 67.7% Win
Manchester United: To Win or Draw 60.8% Loss
Manchester City: To Win 63% Win
Galatasaray: To Win 66.1% Loss
Atletico Madrid: To Win or Draw 72.3% Win
Barcelona: To Win or Draw 74.4% Win
AS Roma: To Win 75.7% Loss
FC Bayern Munich: To Win or Draw 91% Win
Arsenal: To Win or Draw 73.8% Win
Chelsea FC: To Win 51.2% Win
Zenit St. Petersburg: To Win or Draw 62.8% Loss
Valencia: To Win 65% Loss
Dynamo Kiev: To Win 79% Win