College Football Pick’em Analysis


Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 14 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
Memphis Tigers
+245
28.5%
26.4%
27.9%
5
UCF Knights
-265
71.5%
73.6%
72.1%
N/A
Akron Zips
+1050
8.5%
16.2%
10.8%
10
Toledo Rockets
-1600
91.5%
83.8%
89.2%
N/A
North Texas Mean Green
+390
20%
22.2%
20.7%
8
Florida Atlantic Owls
-440
80%
77.8%
79.3%
N/A
TCU Horned Frogs
+240
28.9%
33.4%
30.3%
4
Oklahoma Sooners
-260
71.1%
66.6%
69.8%
N/A
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns
+510
16%
13.4%
15.2%
9
Appalachian State Mountaineers
-615
84%
86.6%
84.8%
N/A
Georgia Bulldogs
+120
44.6%
46.6%
45.2%
2
Auburn Tigers
-130
55.4%
53.4%
54.8%
N/A
Troy Trojans
+102
48.4%
46.9%
48%
1
Arkansas State Red Wolves
-112
51.6%
53.1%
52.1%
N/A
Fresno State Bulldogs
+290
25.2%
27.7%
26%
6
Boise State Broncos
-320
74.8%
72.3%
74.1%
N/A
Miami (FL) Hurricanes
+315
23.7%
26.4%
24.5%
7
Clemson Tigers
-345
76.3%
73.6%
75.5%
3
Ohio State Buckeyes
-250
70.2%
50%
64.1%
N/A
Wisconsin Badgers
+230
29.8%
50%
35.9%

Results

Last Week (Week 14): Straight Up: 8-2 (80.0%), Points: 52.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 102-38 (72.9%), Points: 608.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 95-45 (67.9%), Points: 570.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 89-41 (68.5%), Points: 511.

2017-2018 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 14 UCF Knights 72.1% 5 Win
Week 14 Toledo Rockets 89.2% 10 Win
Week 14 Florida Atlantic Owls 79.3% 8 Win
Week 14 Oklahoma Sooners 69.8% 4 Win
Week 14 Appalachian State Mountaineers 84.8% 9 Win
Week 14 Auburn Tigers 54.8% 2 Loss
Week 14 Arkansas State Red Wolves 52.1% 1 Loss
Week 14 Boise State Broncos 74.1% 6 Win
Week 14 Clemson Tigers 75.5% 7 Win
Week 14 Ohio State Buckeyes 64.1% 3 Win
Week 13 Ohio State Buckeyes 75.1% 5 Win
Week 13 Georgia Bulldogs 78.2% 8 Win
Week 13 Appalachian State Mountaineers 70.7% 4 Win
Week 13 Boise State Broncos 70.1% 3 Loss
Week 13 Alabama Crimson Tide 60.8% 2 Loss
Week 13 Oklahoma Sooners 91.8% 10 Win
Week 13 Clemson Tigers 83.7% 9 Win
Week 13 LSU Tigers 76.7% 7 Win
Week 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 58.5% 1 Loss
Week 13 Washington Huskies 76.5% 6 Win
Week 12 West Virginia Mountaineers 58.5% 3 Loss
Week 12 Memphis Tigers 77.3% 6 Win
Week 12 TCU Horned Frogs 72.1% 5 Win
Week 12 Wisconsin Badgers 71.6% 4 Win
Week 12 Fresno State Bulldogs 51.6% 1 Win
Week 12 Georgia Bulldogs 93.3% 10 Win
Week 12 Oklahoma State Cowboys 89.8% 9 Loss
Week 12 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 51.7% 2 Win
Week 12 USC Trojans 85.6% 7 Win
Week 12 Boise State Broncos 87% 8 Win
Week 11 Ohio State Buckeyes 83.2% 10 Win
Week 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys 70% 8 Win
Week 11 North Carolina State Wolfpack 59.5% 6 Win
Week 11 Virginia Tech Hokies 56.9% 4 Loss
Week 11 Wisconsin Badgers 79.3% 9 Win
Week 11 Georgia Bulldogs 54.3% 2 Loss
Week 11 Washington State Cougars 51.9% 1 Win
Week 11 Oklahoma Sooners 68.7% 7 Win
Week 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 57.8% 5 Loss
Week 11 Boise State Broncos 55.4% 3 Win
Week 10 Auburn Tigers 83.5% 8 Win
Week 10 Penn State Nittany Lions 77% 7 Loss
Week 10 West Virginia Mountaineers 54.9% 3 Win
Week 10 Clemson Tigers 74.7% 6 Win
Week 10 Washington State Cougars 53.1% 1 Win
Week 10 Ohio State Buckeyes 84.9% 9 Loss
Week 10 Oklahoma Sooners 55.1% 4 Loss
Week 10 Texas Longhorns 72.6% 5 Win
Week 10 LSU Tigers 92.5% 10 Win
Week 10 Virginia Tech Hokies 53.7% 2 Loss
Week 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys 72.2% 6 Win
Week 9 Ohio State Buckeyes 62.6% 2 Win
Week 9 Georgia Bulldogs 82.9% 9 Win
Week 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 73.4% 7 Win
Week 9 TCU Horned Frogs 71% 5 Loss
Week 9 Michigan State Spartans 54.8% 1 Loss
Week 9 South Florida Bulls 78.3% 8 Loss
Week 9 Florida Atlantic Owls 64.3% 3 Win
Week 9 Clemson Tigers 83.6% 10 Win
Week 9 USC Trojans 65.8% 4 Win
Week 8 Florida State Seminoles 70.7% 4 Loss
Week 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys 71.4% 5 Win
Week 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders 68.7% 3 Loss
Week 8 UCF Knights 67.9% 2 Win
Week 8 Oklahoma Sooners 81.3% 9 Win
Week 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs 78.6% 8 Win
Week 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 60.1% 1 Win
Week 8 Penn State Nittany Lions 75.9% 7 Win
Week 8 Boise State Broncos 83.3% 10 Win
Week 8 San Diego State Aztecs 74.5% 6 Loss
Week 7 West Virginia Mountaineers 61% 3 Win
Week 7 TCU Horned Frogs 67.1% 4 Win
Week 7 Oklahoma Sooners 74.7% 7 Win
Week 7 Auburn Tigers 70.9% 6 Loss
Week 7 Memphis Tigers 56.4% 2 Win
Week 7 Ohio State Buckeyes 92.3% 10 Win
Week 7 USC Trojans 83.2% 9 Win
Week 7 UCLA Bruins 52.4% 1 Loss
Week 7 San Diego State Aztecs 69.5% 5 Loss
Week 7 Stanford Cardinal 76.3% 8 Win
Week 6 Georgia Bulldogs 84.1% 10 Win
Week 6 Florida Gators 60.4% 5 Loss
Week 6 Purdue Boilermakers 57% 2 Win
Week 6 TCU Horned Frogs 78.7% 9 Win
Week 6 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 57.5% 3 Win
Week 6 Texas Longhorns 58.1% 4 Win
Week 6 Michigan Wolverines 78.2% 7 Loss
Week 6 Wisconsin Badgers 78.5% 8 Win
Week 6 Oregon Ducks 53.2% 1 Loss
Week 6 Stanford Cardinal 63.3% 6 Win
Week 5 Minnesota Golden Gophers 77.3% 8 Loss
Week 5 Florida Gators 75% 5 Win
Week 5 Georgia Bulldogs 71.2% 4 Win
Week 5 Auburn Tigers 76.6% 7 Win
Week 5 UCF Knights 62.3% 1 Win
Week 5 Clemson Tigers 71.1% 3 Win
Week 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys 75.6% 6 Win
Week 5 San Diego State Aztecs 80.7% 10 Win
Week 5 Oregon Ducks 78% 9 Win
Week 5 UCLA Bruins 63.2% 2 Win
Week 4 Texas A&M Aggies 56.4% 2 Win
Week 4 Houston Cougars 68.5% 6 Loss
Week 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys 78.4% 9 Loss
Week 4 Duke Blue Devils 50.6% 1 Win
Week 4 Georgia Bulldogs 65.9% 5 Win
Week 4 Penn State Nittany Lions 79.6% 10 Win
Week 4 Florida Gators 57% 3 Win
Week 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 61.5% 4 Win
Week 4 Washington Huskies 75.9% 8 Win
Week 4 Stanford Cardinal 73.1% 7 Win
Week 3 Duke Blue Devils 78.7% 6 Win
Week 3 Florida Gators 66.5% 5 Win
Week 3 Wisconsin Badgers 82.1% 8 Win
Week 3 TCU Horned Frogs 87.6% 10 Win
Week 3 Oregon Ducks 79.7% 7 Win
Week 3 South Carolina Gamecocks 64.8% 4 Loss
Week 3 Kansas State Wildcats 64.5% 3 Loss
Week 3 Clemson Tigers 58.2% 1 Win
Week 3 USC Trojans 85.7% 9 Win
Week 3 Ole Miss Rebels 59.6% 2 Loss
Week 2 Iowa Hawkeyes 61.5% 4 Win
Week 2 Louisville Cardinals 68.7% 6 Win
Week 2 TCU Horned Frogs 54.7% 2 Win
Week 2 Penn State Nittany Lions 87.2% 10 Win
Week 2 Oregon Ducks 72.7% 9 Win
Week 2 Clemson Tigers 66.1% 5 Win
Week 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 71.8% 8 Loss
Week 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 61.2% 3 Loss
Week 2 USC Trojans 68.8% 7 Win
Week 2 Utah Utes 54.1% 1 Win
Week 1 Penn State Nittany Lions 97.8% 10 Win
Week 1 Texas Longhorns 86.1% 7 Loss
Week 1 North Carolina Tar Heels 81.7% 4 Loss
Week 1 North Carolina State Wolfpack 70.2% 2 Loss
Week 1 Michigan Wolverines 66.8% 1 Win
Week 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 82.6% 6 Win
Week 1 USC Trojans 94.3% 9 Win
Week 1 Louisville Cardinals 94% 8 Win
Week 1 Alabama Crimson Tide 71.7% 3 Win
Week 1 LSU Tigers 82.2% 5 Win