Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Game: Pigskin Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Pigskin Pick’Em
Join our Public Group: StreakEdge

How does it work?: The NFL regular season runs from early September to the beginning of January. There are 17 weeks in total with the number of games varying depending on which teams are on byes. Each week there is also a score tiebreaker for one of the games. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with the week’s games and must pick the winner of each. Every game must then be assigned a point value between 1 and however many games there are in that given week (16 when there are no byes).

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites (or the side with the highest % chance of winning the proposition.)

Week 18 Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
14
 Kansas City Chiefs
-350
76.3%
76.5%
76.4%
N/A
 Las Vegas Raiders
+315
23.7%
23.5%
23.6%
N/A
 Tennessee Titans
+240
28.6%
34.4%
30.3%
11
 Jacksonville Jaguars
-275
71.4%
65.6%
69.7%
N/A
 Baltimore Ravens
+210
31.1%
24.6%
29.2%
12
 Cincinnati Bengals
-250
68.9%
75.4%
70.9%
N/A
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+173
35.7%
39.6%
36.9%
7
 Atlanta Falcons
-195
64.3%
60.4%
63.1%
N/A
 New England Patriots
+265
26.3%
24.8%
25.9%
13
 Buffalo Bills
-330
73.7%
75.2%
74.2%
5
 Minnesota Vikings
-195
64.5%
57.2%
62.3%
N/A
 Chicago Bears
+175
35.5%
42.8%
37.7%
N/A
 Houston Texans
+127
43%
36.1%
40.9%
3
 Indianapolis Colts
-140
57%
63.9%
59.1%
N/A
 New York Jets
-103
48.7%
41.9%
46.7%
1
 Miami Dolphins
-115
51.3%
58.1%
53.3%
N/A
 Carolina Panthers
+160
37.6%
37.6%
37.6%
6
 New Orleans Saints
-177
62.4%
62.4%
62.4%
N/A
 Cleveland Browns
+130
42%
46.7%
43.4%
2
 Pittsburgh Steelers
-150
58%
53.3%
56.6%
4
 Los Angeles Chargers
-175
62.3%
60.1%
61.6%
N/A
 Denver Broncos
+160
37.7%
39.9%
38.4%
N/A
 New York Giants
+640
13.1%
23.3%
16.2%
15
 Philadelphia Eagles
-875
86.9%
76.7%
83.8%
N/A
 Arizona Cardinals
+700
12.2%
10.2%
11.6%
16
 San Francisco 49ers
-930
87.8%
89.8%
88.4%
N/A
 Los Angeles Rams
+240
28.6%
37.8%
31.4%
10
 Seattle Seahawks
-275
71.4%
62.2%
68.6%
9
 Dallas Cowboys
-235
68.1%
63.7%
66.8%
N/A
 Washington Commanders
+205
31.9%
36.3%
33.2%
N/A
 Detroit Lions
+190
33.6%
33.9%
33.7%
8
 Green Bay Packers
-215
66.4%
66.1%
66.3%

Results

Last Week (Week 18): Straight Up: 11-5, Points: 106.
2022-2023 Season: Straight Up: 172-97-2, Points: 1515.
2021-2022 Season: Straight Up: 171-100, Points: 1517.
2020-2021 Season: Straight Up: 159-69, Points: 1388.
2019-2020 Season: Straight Up: 166-89, Points: 1446.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 158-80-2, Points: 1400.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 180-76, Points: 1537.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 153-85-2, Points: 1288.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 162-94.

2022-2023 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Buffalo Bills 52.6% 1 Win
Week 1 New Orleans Saints 67.3% 10 Win
Week 1 San Francisco 49ers 70.8% 13 Loss
Week 1 Cincinnati Bengals 71.2% 15 Loss
Week 1 Philadelphia Eagles 63.2% 7 Win
Week 1 Miami Dolphins 60.9% 6 Win
Week 1 Baltimore Ravens 71.1% 14 Win
Week 1 Washington Commanders 58.4% 5 Win
Week 1 Carolina Panthers 53.7% 3 Loss
Week 1 Indianapolis Colts 74.6% 16 Tie
Week 1 Tennessee Titans 69.7% 11 Loss
Week 1 Green Bay Packers 52.9% 2 Loss
Week 1 Kansas City Chiefs 65.2% 9 Win
Week 1 Los Angeles Chargers 64.6% 8 Win
Week 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55.5% 4 Win
Week 1 Denver Broncos 69.8% 12 Loss
Week 2 Kansas City Chiefs 63.1% 7 Win
Week 2 Cleveland Browns 70.5% 11 Win
Week 2 Detroit Lions 53.2% 2 Win
Week 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60.5% 5 Loss
Week 2 New York Giants 55.4% 4 Win
Week 2 New England Patriots 52.1% 1 Win
Week 2 Indianapolis Colts 63.7% 8 Loss
Week 2 Baltimore Ravens 61.7% 6 Loss
Week 2 Los Angeles Rams 83.8% 16 Win
Week 2 San Francisco 49ers 77.3% 12 Win
Week 2 Cincinnati Bengals 70.4% 10 Loss
Week 2 Denver Broncos 83.1% 15 Win
Week 2 Las Vegas Raiders 64.7% 9 Loss
Week 2 Green Bay Packers 79.9% 13 Win
Week 2 Buffalo Bills 80.2% 14 Win
Week 2 Philadelphia Eagles 53.9% 3 Win
Week 3 Cleveland Browns 65.6% 10 Win
Week 3 Chicago Bears 58.8% 7 Win
Week 3 Las Vegas Raiders 51.4% 2 Loss
Week 3 Kansas City Chiefs 70% 14 Loss
Week 3 Buffalo Bills 65.7% 11 Loss
Week 3 Minnesota Vikings 72.1% 15 Win
Week 3 Baltimore Ravens 58.1% 6 Win
Week 3 Cincinnati Bengals 66.6% 12 Win
Week 3 Philadelphia Eagles 66.9% 13 Win
Week 3 New Orleans Saints 58% 5 Loss
Week 3 Los Angeles Chargers 75% 16 Loss
Week 3 Los Angeles Rams 63% 9 Win
Week 3 Seattle Seahawks 56.4% 3 Loss
Week 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56.7% 4 Loss
Week 3 San Francisco 49ers 50.5% 1 Loss
Week 3 New York Giants 59.7% 8 Loss
Week 4 Cincinnati Bengals 61.8% 9 Win
Week 4 Minnesota Vikings 55.5% 6 Win
Week 4 Cleveland Browns 55.4% 5 Loss
Week 4 Dallas Cowboys 59.7% 7 Win
Week 4 Detroit Lions 68.4% 13 Loss
Week 4 Indianapolis Colts 62.1% 10 Loss
Week 4 New York Giants 61.7% 8 Win
Week 4 Philadelphia Eagles 70.6% 15 Win
Week 4 Pittsburgh Steelers 63.7% 12 Loss
Week 4 Buffalo Bills 62.2% 11 Win
Week 4 Los Angeles Chargers 68.6% 14 Win
Week 4 Carolina Panthers 52.9% 1 Loss
Week 4 Green Bay Packers 78.5% 16 Win
Week 4 Las Vegas Raiders 54.7% 3 Win
Week 4 Kansas City Chiefs 53.5% 2 Win
Week 4 San Francisco 49ers 55.3% 4 Win
Week 5 Denver Broncos 60.8% 4 Loss
Week 5 Green Bay Packers 75.5% 14 Loss
Week 5 Buffalo Bills 86.7% 16 Win
Week 5 Los Angeles Chargers 57.5% 2 Win
Week 5 Minnesota Vikings 74.2% 11 Win
Week 5 New England Patriots 62% 6 Win
Week 5 New Orleans Saints 68.7% 10 Win
Week 5 Miami Dolphins 61.9% 5 Loss
Week 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 78.6% 15 Win
Week 5 Tennessee Titans 54.8% 1 Win
Week 5 Jacksonville Jaguars 75% 13 Loss
Week 5 San Francisco 49ers 67.4% 8 Win
Week 5 Los Angeles Rams 68% 9 Loss
Week 5 Philadelphia Eagles 65.6% 7 Win
Week 5 Baltimore Ravens 58.8% 3 Win
Week 5 Kansas City Chiefs 74.8% 12 Win
Week 6 Chicago Bears 52.7% 1 Loss
Week 6 San Francisco 49ers 68.3% 10 Loss
Week 6 Cleveland Browns 56.3% 4 Loss
Week 6 Green Bay Packers 76.5% 13 Loss
Week 6 Indianapolis Colts 58.4% 7 Win
Week 6 Minnesota Vikings 58.1% 6 Win
Week 6 Cincinnati Bengals 53.2% 2 Win
Week 6 Baltimore Ravens 68.2% 9 Loss
Week 6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 74.9% 12 Loss
Week 6 Los Angeles Rams 81.3% 14 Win
Week 6 Arizona Cardinals 56.9% 5 Loss
Week 6 Buffalo Bills 54.8% 3 Win
Week 6 Philadelphia Eagles 68.4% 11 Win
Week 6 Los Angeles Chargers 68% 8 Win
Week 7 Arizona Cardinals 52.3% 1 Win
Week 7 Cincinnati Bengals 70.7% 7 Win
Week 7 Dallas Cowboys 74.6% 12 Win
Week 7 Tennessee Titans 59.3% 4 Win
Week 7 Green Bay Packers 66.4% 6 Loss
Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 80.2% 14 Loss
Week 7 Jacksonville Jaguars 61.8% 5 Loss
Week 7 Baltimore Ravens 72.7% 9 Win
Week 7 Denver Broncos 58.9% 3 Loss
Week 7 Las Vegas Raiders 73.2% 11 Win
Week 7 Los Angeles Chargers 72.9% 10 Loss
Week 7 Kansas City Chiefs 57.5% 2 Win
Week 7 Miami Dolphins 70.8% 8 Win
Week 7 New England Patriots 74.7% 13 Loss
Week 8 Baltimore Ravens 52% 4 Win
Week 8 Jacksonville Jaguars 58.7% 6 Loss
Week 8 Atlanta Falcons 68.3% 12 Win
Week 8 Dallas Cowboys 77.5% 13 Win
Week 8 Miami Dolphins 62% 9 Win
Week 8 Minnesota Vikings 68.1% 11 Win
Week 8 Las Vegas Raiders 51.5% 2 Loss
Week 8 New England Patriots 51.7% 3 Win
Week 8 Philadelphia Eagles 83.1% 15 Win
Week 8 Tennessee Titans 60.5% 8 Win
Week 8 Indianapolis Colts 59.6% 7 Loss
Week 8 San Francisco 49ers 50.3% 1 Win
Week 8 Seattle Seahawks 56.1% 5 Win
Week 8 Buffalo Bills 79.9% 14 Win
Week 8 Cincinnati Bengals 63.3% 10 Loss
Week 9 Philadelphia Eagles 88.1% 13 Win
Week 9 Los Angeles Chargers 58.7% 4 Win
Week 9 Miami Dolphins 65.2% 8 Win
Week 9 Cincinnati Bengals 76% 10 Win
Week 9 Green Bay Packers 64.9% 7 Loss
Week 9 New England Patriots 68.7% 9 Win
Week 9 Buffalo Bills 82.6% 12 Loss
Week 9 Minnesota Vikings 64.6% 6 Win
Week 9 Jacksonville Jaguars 51.1% 1 Win
Week 9 Arizona Cardinals 56.5% 2 Loss
Week 9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 58.4% 3 Win
Week 9 Kansas City Chiefs 81% 11 Win
Week 9 Baltimore Ravens 60.6% 5 Win
Week 10 Atlanta Falcons 56.7% 2 Loss
Week 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60.5% 4 Win
Week 10 Buffalo Bills 69.7% 10 Loss
Week 10 Chicago Bears 57.1% 3 Loss
Week 10 Tennessee Titans 61.2% 5 Win
Week 10 Kansas City Chiefs 79.8% 13 Win
Week 10 Miami Dolphins 65.8% 8 Win
Week 10 New York Giants 73.5% 12 Win
Week 10 New Orleans Saints 55.6% 1 Loss
Week 10 Las Vegas Raiders 69% 9 Loss
Week 10 Dallas Cowboys 61.9% 6 Loss
Week 10 Los Angeles Rams 63.3% 7 Loss
Week 10 San Francisco 49ers 71.9% 11 Win
Week 10 Philadelphia Eagles 83.5% 14 Loss
Week 11 Green Bay Packers 63.3% 8 Loss
Week 11 Atlanta Falcons 59.4% 4 Win
Week 11 Buffalo Bills 80.7% 13 Win
Week 11 Philadelphia Eagles 77.2% 12 Win
Week 11 New England Patriots 62.1% 7 Win
Week 11 New Orleans Saints 59.3% 3 Win
Week 11 New York Giants 61.9% 6 Loss
Week 11 Baltimore Ravens 85.5% 14 Win
Week 11 Washington Commanders 60.6% 5 Win
Week 11 Denver Broncos 56.7% 2 Loss
Week 11 Minnesota Vikings 52.6% 1 Loss
Week 11 Cincinnati Bengals 67.5% 9 Win
Week 11 Kansas City Chiefs 72.2% 10 Win
Week 11 San Francisco 49ers 76.5% 11 Win
Week 12 Buffalo Bills 79.8% 13 Win
Week 12 Dallas Cowboys 81.6% 14 Win
Week 12 Minnesota Vikings 58.1% 4 Win
Week 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 62.1% 5 Loss
Week 12 Cincinnati Bengals 55.2% 2 Win
Week 12 Miami Dolphins 87.2% 15 Win
Week 12 New York Jets 67.6% 9 Win
Week 12 Washington Commanders 65.4% 8 Win
Week 12 Denver Broncos 53.9% 1 Loss
Week 12 Baltimore Ravens 68.1% 10 Loss
Week 12 Los Angeles Chargers 63.9% 7 Win
Week 12 Seattle Seahawks 62.8% 6 Loss
Week 12 Kansas City Chiefs 88.9% 16 Win
Week 12 San Francisco 49ers 77.9% 12 Win
Week 12 Philadelphia Eagles 74% 11 Win
Week 12 Indianapolis Colts 56.7% 3 Loss
Week 13 Buffalo Bills 65.7% 9 Win
Week 13 Atlanta Falcons 50.9% 1 Loss
Week 13 Green Bay Packers 65.5% 8 Win
Week 13 Detroit Lions 51% 2 Win
Week 13 Minnesota Vikings 62% 6 Win
Week 13 Washington Commanders 54.5% 4 Loss
Week 13 Philadelphia Eagles 72.7% 12 Win
Week 13 Baltimore Ravens 79.5% 14 Win
Week 13 Cleveland Browns 73.6% 13 Win
Week 13 Seattle Seahawks 71.7% 11 Win
Week 13 San Francisco 49ers 63.3% 7 Win
Week 13 Kansas City Chiefs 56.1% 5 Loss
Week 13 Los Angeles Chargers 52.5% 3 Loss
Week 13 Dallas Cowboys 83.9% 15 Win
Week 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 67.4% 10 Win
Week 14 Las Vegas Raiders 71.8% 9 Loss
Week 14 Buffalo Bills 80.4% 12 Win
Week 14 Cincinnati Bengals 70.7% 8 Win
Week 14 Dallas Cowboys 92.8% 13 Win
Week 14 Minnesota Vikings 51.5% 1 Loss
Week 14 Tennessee Titans 65.8% 6 Loss
Week 14 Philadelphia Eagles 76.2% 10 Win
Week 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 54.4% 2 Loss
Week 14 Kansas City Chiefs 79.4% 11 Win
Week 14 San Francisco 49ers 61.9% 5 Win
Week 14 Seattle Seahawks 66.2% 7 Loss
Week 14 Miami Dolphins 59.5% 4 Loss
Week 14 New England Patriots 56.2% 3 Win
Week 15 San Francisco 49ers 62.6% 7 Win
Week 15 Minnesota Vikings 67.2% 11 Win
Week 15 Cleveland Browns 57.2% 4 Win
Week 15 Buffalo Bills 74.9% 13 Win
Week 15 New Orleans Saints 64.9% 9 Win
Week 15 Philadelphia Eagles 80.4% 15 Win
Week 15 New York Jets 51% 1 Loss
Week 15 Carolina Panthers 55.1% 3 Loss
Week 15 Dallas Cowboys 67.4% 12 Loss
Week 15 Kansas City Chiefs 88.3% 16 Win
Week 15 Denver Broncos 63.3% 8 Win
Week 15 New England Patriots 52.4% 2 Loss
Week 15 Los Angeles Chargers 58.1% 5 Win
Week 15 Cincinnati Bengals 61% 6 Win
Week 15 Washington Commanders 66.9% 10 Loss
Week 15 Green Bay Packers 75.6% 14 Win
Week 16 New York Jets 51.7% 1 Loss
Week 16 Buffalo Bills 79.6% 15 Win
Week 16 Cleveland Browns 60.2% 5 Loss
Week 16 Tennessee Titans 71.8% 12 Loss
Week 16 Kansas City Chiefs 81.1% 16 Win
Week 16 Minnesota Vikings 64.7% 10 Win
Week 16 Cincinnati Bengals 62.8% 6 Win
Week 16 Detroit Lions 57.8% 4 Loss
Week 16 Baltimore Ravens 74.8% 14 Win
Week 16 San Francisco 49ers 74.1% 13 Win
Week 16 Dallas Cowboys 62.9% 7 Win
Week 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 56.7% 3 Win
Week 16 Miami Dolphins 63.8% 9 Loss
Week 16 Denver Broncos 56.5% 2 Loss
Week 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 71.5% 11 Win
Week 16 Los Angeles Chargers 63.5% 8 Win
Week 17 Dallas Cowboys 78.7% 14 Win
Week 17 Atlanta Falcons 66.5% 9 Win
Week 17 Detroit Lions 70% 12 Win
Week 17 Kansas City Chiefs 87.9% 15 Win
Week 17 New England Patriots 56.9% 3 Win
Week 17 New York Giants 66.7% 10 Win
Week 17 Philadelphia Eagles 75% 13 Loss
Week 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 61.8% 5 Win
Week 17 Washington Commanders 54.9% 2 Loss
Week 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 65.1% 8 Win
Week 17 San Francisco 49ers 69.1% 11 Win
Week 17 New York Jets 51.6% 1 Loss
Week 17 Green Bay Packers 62.1% 6 Win
Week 17 Los Angeles Rams 58.7% 4 Loss
Week 17 Baltimore Ravens 63.1% 7 Loss
Week 18 Kansas City Chiefs 76.4% 14 Win
Week 18 Jacksonville Jaguars 69.7% 11 Win
Week 18 Cincinnati Bengals 70.9% 12 Win
Week 18 Atlanta Falcons 63.1% 7 Win
Week 18 Buffalo Bills 74.2% 13 Win
Week 18 Minnesota Vikings 62.3% 5 Win
Week 18 Indianapolis Colts 59.1% 3 Loss
Week 18 Miami Dolphins 53.3% 1 Win
Week 18 New Orleans Saints 62.4% 6 Loss
Week 18 Pittsburgh Steelers 56.6% 2 Win
Week 18 Los Angeles Chargers 61.6% 4 Loss
Week 18 Philadelphia Eagles 83.8% 15 Win
Week 18 San Francisco 49ers 88.4% 16 Win
Week 18 Seattle Seahawks 68.6% 10 Win
Week 18 Dallas Cowboys 66.8% 9 Loss
Week 18 Green Bay Packers 66.3% 8 Loss