Pigskin Pick’em Analysis


Game: Pigskin Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Pigskin Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The NFL regular season runs from early September to the beginning of January. There are 17 weeks in total with the number of games varying depending on which teams are on byes. Each week there is also a score tiebreaker for one of the games. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with the week’s games and must pick the winner of each. Every game must then be assigned a point value between 1 and however many games there are in that given week (16 when there are no byes).

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites (or the side with the highest % chance of winning the proposition.)

Week 2 Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+270
26.5%
30.4%
27.7%
12
Carolina Panthers
-300
73.5%
69.6%
72.3%
2
Buffalo Bills
-125
53.2%
51.6%
52.7%
N/A
New York Giants
+105
46.8%
48.4%
47.3%
N/A
San Francisco 49ers
+105
46.8%
52.8%
48.6%
1
Cincinnati Bengals
-125
53.2%
47.2%
51.4%
11
Dallas Cowboys
-225
66.4%
53.1%
62.4%
N/A
Washington Redskins
+185
33.6%
46.9%
37.6%
6
Los Angeles Chargers
-138
55.8%
65%
58.6%
N/A
Detroit Lions
+118
44.2%
35%
41.4%
N/A
Minnesota Vikings
+140
40.4%
35.9%
39.1%
9
Green Bay Packers
-160
59.6%
64.1%
61%
N/A
Indianapolis Colts
+155
38.1%
45%
40.2%
8
Tennessee Titans
-175
61.9%
55%
59.8%
16
New England Patriots
-1700
91.9%
78.4%
87.9%
N/A
Miami Dolphins
+1100
8.1%
21.6%
12.2%
N/A
Arizona Cardinals
+525
15.3%
26.4%
18.6%
15
Baltimore Ravens
-750
84.7%
73.6%
81.4%
N/A
Seattle Seahawks
+165
36.5%
44.1%
38.8%
10
Pittsburgh Steelers
-190
63.5%
55.9%
61.2%
N/A
Jacksonville Jaguars
+360
21%
26.4%
22.6%
14
Houston Texans
-450
79%
73.6%
77.4%
13
Kansas City Chiefs
-360
75.8%
68%
73.5%
N/A
Oakland Raiders
+300
24.2%
32%
26.5%
5
Chicago Bears
-140
56.2%
51.2%
54.7%
N/A
Denver Broncos
+120
43.8%
48.8%
45.3%
N/A
New Orleans Saints
+125
42.9%
35.3%
40.6%
7
Los Angeles Rams
-145
57.1%
64.7%
59.4%
3
Philadelphia Eagles
-125
53.2%
51.9%
52.8%
N/A
Atlanta Falcons
+105
46.8%
48.1%
47.2%
4
Cleveland Browns
-145
57.1%
47.8%
54.3%
N/A
New York Jets
+125
42.9%
52.2%
45.7%

Results

Last Week (Week 1): Straight Up: 12-4, Points: 110.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 158-80-2, Points: 1400.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 180-76, Points: 1537.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 153-85-2 (64.3%), Points: 1288.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 162-94 (63.3%).

2019-2020 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Chicago Bears 58.7% 5 Loss
Week 1 Minnesota Vikings 64.3% 8 Win
Week 1 New York Jets 59.3% 6 Loss
Week 1 Cleveland Browns 67.2% 9 Loss
Week 1 Kansas City Chiefs 61.2% 7 Win
Week 1 Los Angeles Rams 54.8% 3 Win
Week 1 Baltimore Ravens 70.6% 11 Win
Week 1 Philadelphia Eagles 79.4% 16 Win
Week 1 Seattle Seahawks 78.2% 15 Win
Week 1 Los Angeles Chargers 70.9% 12 Win
Week 1 Dallas Cowboys 75% 14 Win
Week 1 Detroit Lions 55.1% 4 Win
Week 1 San Francisco 49ers 50.4% 1 Win
Week 1 New England Patriots 69% 10 Win
Week 1 New Orleans Saints 71.8% 13 Win
Week 1 Denver Broncos 51.2% 2 Loss