Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Game: Pigskin Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Pigskin Pick’Em
Join our Public Group: StreakEdge

How does it work?: The NFL regular season runs from early September to the beginning of January. There are 17 weeks in total with the number of games varying depending on which teams are on byes. Each week there is also a score tiebreaker for one of the games. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with the week’s games and must pick the winner of each. Every game must then be assigned a point value between 1 and however many games there are in that given week (16 when there are no byes).

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites (or the side with the highest % chance of winning the proposition.)

Week 17 Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
1
 Atlanta Falcons
-120
52.2%
49.3%
51.3%
N/A
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+100
47.8%
50.7%
48.7%
N/A
 Miami Dolphins
+215
30.6%
45.9%
35.2%
5
 Buffalo Bills
-255
69.4%
54.1%
64.8%
N/A
 Dallas Cowboys
+205
31.6%
49.8%
37.1%
4
 New York Giants
-245
68.4%
50.2%
62.9%
N/A
 Detroit Lions
+300
24.2%
30.4%
26.1%
11
 Green Bay Packers
-360
75.8%
69.6%
73.9%
N/A
 New York Jets
+550
14.8%
16.6%
15.3%
14
 New England Patriots
-800
85.2%
83.4%
84.7%
N/A
 Carolina Panthers
+250
27.6%
22.8%
26.2%
10
 New Orleans Saints
-300
72.4%
77.2%
73.8%
N/A
 Jacksonville Jaguars
+245
28%
28.2%
28.1%
9
 Houston Texans
-290
72%
71.8%
71.9%
N/A
 Chicago Bears
+195
32.6%
49%
37.5%
3
 Minnesota Vikings
-235
67.4%
51%
62.5%
N/A
 Cincinnati Bengals
+625
13.2%
21.4%
15.7%
13
 Pittsburgh Steelers
-950
86.8%
78.6%
84.3%
N/A
 Cleveland Browns
+200
32.1%
29.3%
31.3%
8
 Baltimore Ravens
-240
67.9%
70.7%
68.7%
6
 Los Angeles Chargers
-275
71.1%
55.6%
66.5%
N/A
 Denver Broncos
+235
28.9%
44.4%
33.6%
N/A
 Oakland Raiders
+575
14.2%
13.4%
14%
16
 Kansas City Chiefs
-850
85.8%
86.6%
86%
N/A
 San Francisco 49ers
+365
20.7%
13.4%
18.5%
12
 Los Angeles Rams
-460
79.3%
86.6%
81.5%
7
 Philadelphia Eagles
-310
72.9%
54.7%
67.4%
N/A
 Washington Redskins
+255
27.1%
45.3%
32.6%
N/A
 Arizona Cardinals
+550
14.8%
14%
14.6%
15
 Seattle Seahawks
-800
85.2%
86%
85.4%
2
 Indianapolis Colts
-185
62.8%
42%
56.6%
N/A
 Tennessee Titans
+160
37.2%
58%
43.4%

Results

Last Week (Week 16): Straight Up: 12-4, Points: 114.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 158-80-2, Points: 1400.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 180-76, Points: 1537.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 153-85-2 (64.3%), Points: 1288.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 162-94 (63.3%).

2018-2019 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 16 Tennessee Titans 78.9% 14 Win
Week 16 Los Angeles Chargers 66.8% 9 Loss
Week 16 Atlanta Falcons 57.9% 4 Win
Week 16 New England Patriots 85.3% 16 Win
Week 16 Cleveland Browns 75.9% 12 Win
Week 16 Dallas Cowboys 71.3% 11 Win
Week 16 Minnesota Vikings 64.3% 7 Win
Week 16 Green Bay Packers 57.2% 3 Win
Week 16 Indianapolis Colts 76.7% 13 Win
Week 16 Miami Dolphins 60.6% 5 Loss
Week 16 Philadelphia Eagles 52.9% 1 Win
Week 16 Chicago Bears 65.5% 8 Win
Week 16 Los Angeles Rams 84.8% 15 Win
Week 16 New Orleans Saints 68.8% 10 Win
Week 16 Kansas City Chiefs 54.4% 2 Loss
Week 16 Denver Broncos 60.8% 6 Loss
Week 14 Tennessee Titans 63.3% 6 Win
Week 14 Green Bay Packers 66.9% 10 Win
Week 14 Buffalo Bills 60.6% 4 Loss
Week 14 Carolina Panthers 52.7% 1 Loss
Week 14 Houston Texans 67.1% 11 Loss
Week 14 Kansas City Chiefs 73.8% 12 Win
Week 14 New England Patriots 76.3% 13 Loss
Week 14 New Orleans Saints 77.2% 14 Win
Week 14 New York Giants 57.8% 3 Win
Week 14 Los Angeles Chargers 87.2% 16 Win
Week 14 Denver Broncos 66.6% 9 Loss
Week 14 Dallas Cowboys 63.8% 8 Win
Week 14 Detroit Lions 54.9% 2 Win
Week 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 84% 15 Loss
Week 14 Los Angeles Rams 60.8% 5 Loss
Week 14 Seattle Seahawks 63.7% 7 Win
Week 13 New Orleans Saints 74.6% 11 Loss
Week 13 Atlanta Falcons 51% 1 Loss
Week 13 Miami Dolphins 66.7% 6 Win
Week 13 Chicago Bears 67.4% 7 Loss
Week 13 Denver Broncos 62.3% 4 Win
Week 13 Houston Texans 70.8% 10 Win
Week 13 Los Angeles Rams 79.6% 14 Win
Week 13 Green Bay Packers 85.6% 15 Loss
Week 13 Indianapolis Colts 58.8% 2 Loss
Week 13 Carolina Panthers 59.2% 3 Loss
Week 13 Tennessee Titans 76.2% 12 Win
Week 13 Kansas City Chiefs 89.4% 16 Win
Week 13 New England Patriots 68.4% 8 Win
Week 13 Seattle Seahawks 79.5% 13 Win
Week 13 Pittsburgh Steelers 64.1% 5 Loss
Week 13 Philadelphia Eagles 69.7% 9 Win
Week 12 Chicago Bears 65.8% 7 Win
Week 12 Dallas Cowboys 71.9% 10 Win
Week 12 New Orleans Saints 85% 15 Win
Week 12 Jacksonville Jaguars 62.6% 2 Loss
Week 12 Cincinnati Bengals 63.9% 5 Loss
Week 12 Baltimore Ravens 84.6% 14 Win
Week 12 New England Patriots 78.4% 12 Win
Week 12 Philadelphia Eagles 69.3% 8 Win
Week 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 64.6% 6 Win
Week 12 Carolina Panthers 62.4% 1 Loss
Week 12 Los Angeles Chargers 84.5% 13 Win
Week 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 63.4% 3 Loss
Week 12 Indianapolis Colts 77.8% 11 Win
Week 12 Minnesota Vikings 63.5% 4 Win
Week 12 Houston Texans 69.6% 9 Win
Week 11 Seattle Seahawks 59% 5 Win
Week 11 Atlanta Falcons 59.9% 6 Loss
Week 11 Baltimore Ravens 77.2% 12 Win
Week 11 Carolina Panthers 61.7% 8 Loss
Week 11 Indianapolis Colts 53% 2 Win
Week 11 New York Giants 50.5% 1 Win
Week 11 Pittsburgh Steelers 68.1% 10 Win
Week 11 Houston Texans 56% 4 Win
Week 11 Los Angeles Chargers 75.6% 11 Loss
Week 11 Arizona Cardinals 66.6% 9 Loss
Week 11 New Orleans Saints 77.5% 13 Win
Week 11 Chicago Bears 60% 7 Win
Week 11 Los Angeles Rams 53.2% 3 Win
Week 10 Pittsburgh Steelers 66.1% 6 Win
Week 10 Atlanta Falcons 61.6% 4 Loss
Week 10 New York Jets 72.7% 10 Loss
Week 10 Chicago Bears 70.7% 8 Win
Week 10 New Orleans Saints 63% 5 Win
Week 10 New England Patriots 66.8% 7 Loss
Week 10 Indianapolis Colts 56% 1 Win
Week 10 Kansas City Chiefs 90.2% 14 Win
Week 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60.5% 3 Loss
Week 10 Los Angeles Chargers 78.9% 13 Win
Week 10 Green Bay Packers 76.2% 11 Win
Week 10 Los Angeles Rams 77.4% 12 Win
Week 10 Philadelphia Eagles 70.9% 9 Loss
Week 10 San Francisco 49ers 57.8% 2 Loss
Week 9 San Francisco 49ers 60.1% 7 Win
Week 9 Washington Redskins 57% 5 Loss
Week 9 Chicago Bears 79.7% 13 Win
Week 9 Kansas City Chiefs 79.6% 12 Win
Week 9 Minnesota Vikings 66.3% 8 Win
Week 9 Miami Dolphins 57.9% 6 Win
Week 9 Baltimore Ravens 55.8% 3 Loss
Week 9 Carolina Panthers 72.8% 11 Win
Week 9 Denver Broncos 50.7% 1 Loss
Week 9 Seattle Seahawks 56% 4 Loss
Week 9 New Orleans Saints 52.9% 2 Win
Week 9 New England Patriots 71.1% 10 Win
Week 9 Dallas Cowboys 70.8% 9 Loss
Week 8 Houston Texans 73.5% 10 Win
Week 8 Philadelphia Eagles 58.9% 7 Win
Week 8 Chicago Bears 71.3% 9 Win
Week 8 Cincinnati Bengals 66.4% 8 Win
Week 8 Pittsburgh Steelers 76.8% 11 Win
Week 8 Kansas City Chiefs 83.2% 13 Win
Week 8 Detroit Lions 58% 6 Loss
Week 8 Washington Redskins 51.6% 2 Win
Week 8 Baltimore Ravens 53.5% 4 Loss
Week 8 Indianapolis Colts 56.5% 5 Win
Week 8 Los Angeles Rams 80.1% 12 Win
Week 8 Arizona Cardinals 52% 3 Win
Week 8 Minnesota Vikings 50.6% 1 Loss
Week 8 New England Patriots 86.2% 14 Win
Week 7 Denver Broncos 50.6% 1 Win
Week 7 Los Angeles Chargers 70.2% 11 Win
Week 7 Indianapolis Colts 72.1% 13 Win
Week 7 New England Patriots 54.8% 4 Win
Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 67.9% 9 Win
Week 7 Detroit Lions 54.1% 3 Win
Week 7 Minnesota Vikings 59% 5 Win
Week 7 Philadelphia Eagles 66.8% 7 Loss
Week 7 Jacksonville Jaguars 67.7% 8 Loss
Week 7 Baltimore Ravens 60.9% 6 Loss
Week 7 Washington Redskins 53.2% 2 Win
Week 7 Los Angeles Rams 80.4% 14 Win
Week 7 Kansas City Chiefs 70.7% 12 Win
Week 7 Atlanta Falcons 69.3% 10 Win
Week 6 Philadelphia Eagles 61.2% 10 Win
Week 6 Atlanta Falcons 64.1% 11 Win
Week 6 Houston Texans 68.3% 12 Win
Week 6 Chicago Bears 57.9% 6 Loss
Week 6 Cincinnati Bengals 54.2% 3 Loss
Week 6 Los Angeles Chargers 52% 2 Win
Week 6 New York Jets 60.2% 8 Win
Week 6 Seattle Seahawks 60.8% 9 Win
Week 6 Minnesota Vikings 80.2% 15 Win
Week 6 Washington Redskins 50.8% 1 Win
Week 6 Los Angeles Rams 74% 13 Win
Week 6 Jacksonville Jaguars 56.9% 4 Loss
Week 6 Baltimore Ravens 57.1% 5 Win
Week 6 New England Patriots 59.8% 7 Win
Week 6 Green Bay Packers 77.1% 14 Win
Week 5 New England Patriots 80.3% 15 Win
Week 5 Pittsburgh Steelers 60.4% 5 Win
Week 5 Tennessee Titans 59.7% 4 Loss
Week 5 Cincinnati Bengals 69.7% 11 Win
Week 5 Baltimore Ravens 62.2% 8 Loss
Week 5 New York Jets 52.1% 2 Win
Week 5 Green Bay Packers 50.6% 1 Loss
Week 5 Kansas City Chiefs 61.9% 7 Win
Week 5 Carolina Panthers 74% 14 Win
Week 5 Los Angeles Chargers 69.4% 10 Win
Week 5 Los Angeles Rams 70.4% 12 Win
Week 5 Philadelphia Eagles 61.6% 6 Loss
Week 5 San Francisco 49ers 65.2% 9 Loss
Week 5 Houston Texans 58.1% 3 Win
Week 5 New Orleans Saints 71.6% 13 Win
Week 4 Los Angeles Rams 71% 11 Win
Week 4 Atlanta Falcons 68.8% 10 Loss
Week 4 Green Bay Packers 74.9% 13 Win
Week 4 Chicago Bears 58.7% 3 Win
Week 4 Dallas Cowboys 58.8% 4 Win
Week 4 Philadelphia Eagles 62% 5 Loss
Week 4 Indianapolis Colts 56.4% 1 Loss
Week 4 New England Patriots 72.9% 12 Win
Week 4 Jacksonville Jaguars 76.8% 14 Win
Week 4 Oakland Raiders 58.4% 2 Win
Week 4 Seattle Seahawks 62.2% 7 Win
Week 4 New Orleans Saints 64.4% 8 Win
Week 4 Los Angeles Chargers 79.5% 15 Win
Week 4 Pittsburgh Steelers 62.1% 6 Loss
Week 4 Kansas City Chiefs 66.1% 9 Win
Week 3 Cleveland Browns 63.5% 7 Win
Week 3 Atlanta Falcons 60.8% 4 Loss
Week 3 Minnesota Vikings 89.3% 16 Loss
Week 3 Carolina Panthers 61.4% 5 Win
Week 3 Baltimore Ravens 68.1% 11 Win
Week 3 Green Bay Packers 61.5% 6 Loss
Week 3 Jacksonville Jaguars 71.8% 13 Loss
Week 3 Philadelphia Eagles 73.2% 15 Win
Week 3 Kansas City Chiefs 66.8% 10 Win
Week 3 Miami Dolphins 59.1% 3 Win
Week 3 Houston Texans 65.3% 9 Loss
Week 3 Los Angeles Rams 71.9% 14 Win
Week 3 Chicago Bears 64.6% 8 Win
Week 3 Seattle Seahawks 51.7% 1 Win
Week 3 New England Patriots 70.9% 12 Loss
Week 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 54.2% 2 Win
Week 2 Baltimore Ravens 51.7% 2 Loss
Week 2 Atlanta Falcons 67.3% 11 Win
Week 2 Los Angeles Chargers 68% 12 Win
Week 2 New Orleans Saints 79.1% 15 Win
Week 2 Green Bay Packers 51.5% 1 Loss
Week 2 Tennessee Titans 64.7% 9 Win
Week 2 Washington Redskins 69.1% 14 Loss
Week 2 Pittsburgh Steelers 65.9% 10 Loss
Week 2 New York Jets 56.5% 4 Loss
Week 2 Philadelphia Eagles 62.3% 7 Loss
Week 2 San Francisco 49ers 68.7% 13 Win
Week 2 Los Angeles Rams 84.3% 16 Win
Week 2 Denver Broncos 63.5% 8 Win
Week 2 New England Patriots 53.4% 3 Loss
Week 2 Dallas Cowboys 61.8% 6 Win
Week 2 Chicago Bears 58.3% 5 Win
Week 1 Philadelphia Eagles 59.3% 6 Win
Week 1 Baltimore Ravens 72.7% 13 Win
Week 1 Indianapolis Colts 57% 4 Loss
Week 1 Pittsburgh Steelers 68.3% 10 Loss
Week 1 Tennessee Titans 52.2% 2 Loss
Week 1 Minnesota Vikings 71.8% 11 Win
Week 1 New England Patriots 73.6% 14 Win
Week 1 New Orleans Saints 78.9% 16 Loss
Week 1 Jacksonville Jaguars 57.9% 5 Win
Week 1 Los Angeles Chargers 63.4% 9 Loss
Week 1 Carolina Panthers 60.8% 7 Win
Week 1 Denver Broncos 55.8% 3 Win
Week 1 Arizona Cardinals 50.6% 1 Loss
Week 1 Green Bay Packers 73.9% 15 Win
Week 1 Detroit Lions 72.5% 12 Loss
Week 1 Los Angeles Rams 61.6% 8 Win