Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Game: Pigskin Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Pigskin Pick’Em
Join our Public Group: StreakEdge

How does it work?: The NFL regular season runs from early September to the beginning of January. There are eighteen weeks in total with the number of games varying depending on which teams are on byes. Each week there is also a score tiebreaker for one of the games. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with the week’s games and must pick the winner of each. Every game must then be assigned a point value between 1 and however many games there are in that given week (16 when there are no byes).

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites (or the side with the highest % chance of winning the proposition.)

Week 4 Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
2
 Detroit Lions
-120
52.7%
49.4%
51.7%
N/A
 Green Bay Packers
+104
47.3%
50.6%
48.3%
N/A
 Atlanta Falcons
+140
40.8%
45%
42.1%
7
 Jacksonville Jaguars
-153
59.2%
55%
57.9%
N/A
 Miami Dolphins
+125
43%
30%
39.1%
9
 Buffalo Bills
-143
57%
70%
60.9%
8
 Denver Broncos
-165
60.9%
51.7%
58.1%
N/A
 Chicago Bears
+150
39.1%
48.3%
41.9%
N/A
 Baltimore Ravens
+125
43.2%
43.5%
43.3%
5
 Cleveland Browns
-140
56.8%
56.5%
56.7%
6
 Cincinnati Bengals
-135
55.8%
62%
57.7%
N/A
 Tennessee Titans
+120
44.2%
38%
42.3%
N/A
 Los Angeles Rams
+105
47.7%
53.6%
49.5%
1
 Indianapolis Colts
-115
52.3%
46.4%
50.5%
N/A
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+149
39.2%
33.7%
37.6%
12
 New Orleans Saints
-165
60.8%
66.3%
62.5%
N/A
 Washington Commanders
+305
23.9%
16.2%
21.6%
15
 Philadelphia Eagles
-370
76.1%
83.8%
78.4%
11
 Minnesota Vikings
-185
63.7%
58.8%
62.2%
N/A
 Carolina Panthers
+170
36.3%
41.2%
37.8%
10
 Pittsburgh Steelers
-158
60%
64.3%
61.3%
N/A
 Houston Texans
+145
40%
35.7%
38.7%
N/A
 Las Vegas Raiders
+220
30.6%
31.4%
30.8%
13
 Los Angeles Chargers
-245
69.4%
68.6%
69.2%
N/A
 New England Patriots
+250
27.8%
90%
46.5%
4
 Dallas Cowboys
-290
72.2%
10%
53.5%
N/A
 Arizona Cardinals
+625
13.3%
6.2%
11.2%
16
 San Francisco 49ers
-860
86.7%
93.8%
88.8%
14
 Kansas City Chiefs
-440
79.6%
61.3%
74.1%
N/A
 New York Jets
+380
20.4%
38.7%
25.9%
N/A
 Seattle Seahawks
+105
47.2%
50.7%
48.3%
3
 New York Giants
-120
52.8%
49.3%
51.8%

Results

Last Week (Week 3): Straight Up: 11-5, Points: 93.
2023-2024 Season: Straight Up: 29-19, Points: 264.
2022-2023 Season: Straight Up: 172-97-2, Points: 1515.
2021-2022 Season: Straight Up: 171-100, Points: 1517.
2020-2021 Season: Straight Up: 159-69, Points: 1388.
2019-2020 Season: Straight Up: 166-89, Points: 1446.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 158-80-2, Points: 1400.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 180-76, Points: 1537.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 153-85-2, Points: 1288.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 162-94.

2023-2024 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Kansas City Chiefs 72.8% 14 Loss
Week 1 Atlanta Falcons 64.5% 8 Win
Week 1 Cincinnati Bengals 57.1% 3 Loss
Week 1 Jacksonville Jaguars 66.5% 11 Win
Week 1 Minnesota Vikings 68.4% 13 Loss
Week 1 New Orleans Saints 64.6% 9 Win
Week 1 San Francisco 49ers 56.9% 2 Win
Week 1 Washington Commanders 76% 15 Win
Week 1 Baltimore Ravens 81.6% 16 Win
Week 1 Chicago Bears 51.7% 1 Loss
Week 1 Denver Broncos 64.3% 7 Loss
Week 1 Philadelphia Eagles 64.9% 10 Win
Week 1 Los Angeles Chargers 59.3% 5 Loss
Week 1 Seattle Seahawks 68.1% 12 Loss
Week 1 Dallas Cowboys 61.5% 6 Win
Week 1 Buffalo Bills 58.7% 4 Loss
Week 2 Philadelphia Eagles 74.7% 14 Win
Week 2 Green Bay Packers 50.3% 1 Loss
Week 2 Buffalo Bills 79.6% 16 Win
Week 2 Cincinnati Bengals 62.7% 9 Loss
Week 2 Detroit Lions 67.4% 11 Loss
Week 2 Los Angeles Chargers 60.9% 8 Loss
Week 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60.4% 6 Win
Week 2 Kansas City Chiefs 58.8% 5 Win
Week 2 Indianapolis Colts 51.8% 2 Win
Week 2 San Francisco 49ers 73.3% 13 Win
Week 2 New York Giants 69.5% 12 Win
Week 2 Dallas Cowboys 78.7% 15 Win
Week 2 Denver Broncos 63.2% 10 Loss
Week 2 Miami Dolphins 55.4% 4 Win
Week 2 New Orleans Saints 60.8% 7 Win
Week 2 Cleveland Browns 54.4% 3 Loss
Week 3 San Francisco 49ers 81.8% 14 Win
Week 3 Cleveland Browns 64.3% 7 Win
Week 3 Detroit Lions 61.7% 6 Win
Week 3 Green Bay Packers 53.9% 3 Win
Week 3 Miami Dolphins 70.2% 10 Win
Week 3 Minnesota Vikings 51.5% 1 Loss
Week 3 New England Patriots 55.4% 4 Win
Week 3 Buffalo Bills 72.6% 11 Win
Week 3 Jacksonville Jaguars 80.2% 13 Loss
Week 3 Baltimore Ravens 77.8% 12 Loss
Week 3 Seattle Seahawks 70.1% 9 Win
Week 3 Kansas City Chiefs 86% 16 Win
Week 3 Dallas Cowboys 85.9% 15 Loss
Week 3 Las Vegas Raiders 52.6% 2 Loss
Week 3 Philadelphia Eagles 65.7% 8 Win
Week 3 Cincinnati Bengals 57.6% 5 Win