College Football Pick’em Analysis

Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 14 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Odds Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
2
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
-117
52.3%
59.6%
54.5%
N/A
 UTSA Roadrunners
+103
47.7%
40.4%
45.5%
N/A
 Oregon Ducks
+128
42.7%
36%
40.7%
5
 Utah Utes
-143
57.3%
64%
59.3%
N/A
 Baylor Bears
+180
35.1%
35.2%
35.1%
7
 Oklahoma State Cowboys
-195
64.9%
64.8%
64.9%
3
 Kent State Golden Flashes
-135
56.4%
52.7%
55.3%
N/A
 Northern Illinois Huskies
+125
43.6%
47.3%
44.7%
N/A
 Utah State Aggies
+190
33.9%
20.5%
29.9%
8
 San Diego State Aztecs
-205
66.1%
79.5%
70.1%
1
 Appalachian State Mountaineers
-140
56.2%
45.8%
53.1%
N/A
 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
+120
43.8%
54.2%
46.9%
6
 Georgia Bulldogs
-230
68.4%
51.3%
63.3%
N/A
 Alabama Crimson Tide
+210
31.6%
48.7%
36.7%
N/A
 Houston Cougars
+330
22.7%
14.6%
20.3%
10
 Cincinnati Bearcats
-380
77.3%
85.4%
79.7%
9
 Michigan Wolverines
-430
78.5%
77.5%
78.2%
N/A
 Iowa Hawkeyes
+350
21.5%
22.5%
21.8%
4
 Pittsburgh Panthers
-140
57.3%
57%
57.2%
N/A
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
+130
42.7%
43%
42.8%

Results

Last Week (Week 14): Straight Up: 4-6 (40.0%), Points: 21.
2021-2022 Season: Straight Up: 88-52 (62.9%), Points: 530.
2020-2021 Season: Straight Up: 64-25 (69.9%), Points: 325.
2019-2020 Season: Straight Up: 113-37 (74.3%), Points: 680.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 102-37 (73.4%), Points: 575.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 102-38 (72.9%), Points: 608.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 95-45 (67.9%), Points: 570.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 89-41 (68.5%), Points: 511.

2021-2022 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Wisconsin Badgers 65.9% 6 Loss
Week 1 Oklahoma Sooners 94.7% 10 Win
Week 1 Alabama Crimson Tide 88.8% 9 Win
Week 1 Iowa Hawkeyes 60.1% 4 Win
Week 1 West Virginia Mountaineers 61% 5 Loss
Week 1 Texas Longhorns 72.7% 7 Win
Week 1 Houston Cougars 50.2% 1 Loss
Week 1 Clemson Tigers 58.9% 3 Loss
Week 1 LSU Tigers 55.6% 2 Loss
Week 1 Brigham Young Cougars 77.9% 8 Win
Week 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 83.5% 7 Loss
Week 2 Pittsburgh Panthers 58.4% 2 Win
Week 2 Florida Gators 94.6% 10 Win
Week 2 Texas A&M Aggies 87.7% 9 Win
Week 2 Iowa State Cyclones 67.2% 3 Loss
Week 2 Texas Longhorns 70.1% 6 Loss
Week 2 NC State Wolfpack 51.3% 1 Loss
Week 2 Michigan Wolverines 67.6% 4 Win
Week 2 Utah Utes 69.2% 5 Loss
Week 2 USC Trojans 87.5% 8 Loss
Week 3 Oklahoma Sooners 90.7% 10 Win
Week 3 Cincinnati Bearcats 59% 2 Win
Week 3 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 75.9% 8 Win
Week 3 West Virginia Mountaineers 57% 1 Win
Week 3 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 70.5% 6 Loss
Week 3 Alabama Crimson Tide 83.7% 9 Win
Week 3 Utah Utes 73.6% 7 Loss
Week 3 Penn State Nittany Lions 67.6% 5 Win
Week 3 Boise State Broncos 61.5% 4 Loss
Week 3 Arizona State Sun Devils 61.4% 3 Loss
Week 4 Wisconsin Badgers 65.5% 3 Loss
Week 4 Texas Longhorns 75.5% 7 Win
Week 4 Iowa State Cyclones 72.6% 6 Loss
Week 4 Texas A&M Aggies 67.5% 4 Loss
Week 4 Michigan Wolverines 85.6% 9 Win
Week 4 Memphis Tigers 62.3% 1 Loss
Week 4 UCLA Bruins 65% 2 Win
Week 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys 70.5% 5 Win
Week 4 Oklahoma Sooners 86.3% 10 Win
Week 4 USC Trojans 81% 8 Loss
Week 5 Georgia Bulldogs 84.5% 9 Win
Week 5 Michigan Wolverines 56.5% 3 Win
Week 5 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 62.9% 4 Win
Week 5 Cincinnati Bearcats 54.6% 2 Win
Week 5 Alabama Crimson Tide 83.4% 8 Win
Week 5 Ohio State Buckeyes 88.2% 10 Win
Week 5 Oregon Ducks 79.9% 6 Loss
Week 5 Oklahoma Sooners 80.7% 7 Win
Week 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys 65.4% 5 Win
Week 5 Auburn Tigers 53.5% 1 Win
Week 6 Oklahoma Sooners 61.1% 5 Win
Week 6 Mississippi Rebels 66.3% 8 Win
Week 6 Georgia Bulldogs 82.4% 10 Win
Week 6 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 67.5% 9 Win
Week 6 Brigham Young Cougars 63% 7 Loss
Week 6 Iowa Hawkeyes 53.8% 2 Win
Week 6 Oregon State Beavers 62.3% 6 Loss
Week 6 Michigan Wolverines 58.9% 4 Win
Week 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 52.3% 1 Win
Week 6 Kentucky Wildcats 57.6% 3 Win
Week 7 Cincinnati Bearcats 88.6% 9 Win
Week 7 Texas Longhorns 68.7% 6 Loss
Week 7 Florida Gators 75% 7 Loss
Week 7 Georgia Bulldogs 90.9% 10 Win
Week 7 Iowa Hawkeyes 81.8% 8 Loss
Week 7 Baylor Bears 56.5% 3 Win
Week 7 Pittsburgh Panthers 62.2% 4 Win
Week 7 Iowa State Cyclones 68.3% 5 Win
Week 7 NC State Wolfpack 55.7% 2 Win
Week 7 Arizona State Sun Devils 50.2% 1 Loss
Week 8 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 59.6% 5 Win
Week 8 Cincinnati Bearcats 93.8% 10 Win
Week 8 Iowa State Cyclones 68.7% 8 Win
Week 8 UCLA Bruins 52% 1 Loss
Week 8 Pittsburgh Panthers 56.4% 2 Win
Week 8 Air Force Falcons 61.5% 6 Loss
Week 8 Fresno State Bulldogs 58.2% 4 Win
Week 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 67.7% 7 Win
Week 8 Ohio State Buckeyes 87.1% 9 Win
Week 8 NC State Wolfpack 56.9% 3 Loss
Week 9 Michigan Wolverines 63.8% 8 Loss
Week 9 Baylor Bears 54.5% 4 Win
Week 9 Wisconsin Badgers 59.9% 7 Win
Week 9 Georgia Bulldogs 81.6% 9 Win
Week 9 Auburn Tigers 52.8% 3 Win
Week 9 Kentucky Wildcats 52% 2 Loss
Week 9 SMU Mustangs 51.6% 1 Loss
Week 9 Ohio State Buckeyes 86.5% 10 Win
Week 9 BYU Cougars 57.4% 6 Win
Week 9 San Diego State Aztecs 56.9% 5 Loss
Week 10 Ohio State Buckeyes 82.4% 9 Win
Week 10 North Carolina Tar Heels 52% 1 Win
Week 10 Ole Miss Rebels 77.4% 7 Win
Week 10 Michigan State Spartans 61% 3 Loss
Week 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys 56.2% 2 Win
Week 10 Texas A&M Aggies 63.2% 4 Win
Week 10 Baylor Bears 67.7% 5 Loss
Week 10 Alabama Crimson Tide 95.9% 10 Win
Week 10 Oregon Ducks 68.5% 6 Win
Week 10 UTSA Roadrunners 78.4% 8 Win
Week 11 Penn State Nittany Lions 50.5% 1 Loss
Week 11 Oklahoma Sooners 65.2% 6 Loss
Week 11 Ohio State Buckeyes 89.3% 10 Win
Week 11 Iowa Hawkeyes 70.7% 8 Win
Week 11 Marshall Thundering Herd 64% 5 Loss
Week 11 Texas A&M Aggies 51.7% 2 Loss
Week 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 65.6% 7 Win
Week 11 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 57.5% 4 Win
Week 11 San Diego State Aztecs 55.4% 3 Win
Week 11 Oregon Ducks 84.6% 9 Win
Week 12 Oklahoma Sooners 63% 5 Win
Week 12 Ohio State Buckeyes 87.5% 9 Win
Week 12 Clemson Tigers 63.2% 6 Win
Week 12 Alabama Crimson Tide 90.6% 10 Win
Week 12 Cincinnati Bearcats 80.9% 8 Win
Week 12 UTSA Roadrunners 66.8% 7 Win
Week 12 Liberty Flames 61.1% 4 Loss
Week 12 Baylor Bears 51.4% 1 Win
Week 12 Utah Utes 57.3% 2 Win
Week 12 Arizona State Sun Devils 58.5% 3 Loss
Week 13 Ohio State Buckeyes 70% 9 Loss
Week 13 Kent State Golden Flashes 51.6% 2 Win
Week 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 65.2% 6 Win
Week 13 Alabama Crimson Tide 87.8% 10 Win
Week 13 Oregon Ducks 59.7% 4 Win
Week 13 Marshall Thundering Herd 50.7% 1 Loss
Week 13 Wisconsin Badgers 68.6% 8 Loss
Week 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys 60.6% 5 Win
Week 13 Louisville Cardinals 55.8% 3 Loss
Week 13 BYU Cougars 67.6% 7 Win
Week 14 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 54.5% 2 Loss
Week 14 Utah Utes 59.3% 5 Loss
Week 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys 64.9% 7 Win
Week 14 Kent State Golden Flashes 55.3% 3 Win
Week 14 San Diego State Aztecs 70.1% 8 Loss
Week 14 Appalachian State Mountaineers 53.1% 1 Win
Week 14 Georgia Bulldogs 63.3% 6 Loss
Week 14 Cincinnati Bearcats 79.7% 10 Win
Week 14 Michigan Wolverines 78.2% 9 Loss
Week 14 Pittsburgh Panthers 57.2% 4 Loss