College Football Pick’em Analysis


Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 3 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
10
Oklahoma Sooners
-950
86.8%
82.5%
85.5%
N/A
Iowa State Cyclones
+625
13.2%
17.5%
14.5%
4
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
-200
64.3%
52.2%
60.7%
N/A
Pittsburgh Panthers
+170
35.7%
47.8%
39.3%
N/A
Vanderbilt Commodores
+450
17.5%
18.3%
17.7%
9
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-600
82.5%
81.7%
82.3%
N/A
LSU Tigers
+290
24.8%
22.2%
24%
7
Auburn Tigers
-350
75.2%
77.8%
76%
N/A
Boise State Broncos
+135
41.2%
30.5%
38%
5
Oklahoma State Cowboys
-155
58.8%
69.5%
62%
2
West Virginia Mountaineers
-175
61.9%
49.8%
58.3%
N/A
North Carolina State Wolfpack
+155
38.1%
50.2%
41.7%
8
Ohio State Buckeyes
-450
79%
69.7%
76.2%
N/A
TCU Horned Frogs
+360
21%
30.3%
23.8%
N/A
USC Trojans
+135
41.2%
38.5%
40.4%
3
Texas Longhorns
-155
58.8%
61.5%
59.6%
6
Washington Huskies
-250
68.9%
71.3%
69.6%
N/A
Utah Utes
+210
31.1%
28.7%
30.4%
N/A
Fresno State Bulldogs
+105
46.8%
55.3%
49.4%
1
UCLA Bruins
-125
53.2%
44.7%
50.7%

Results

Last Week (Week 2): Straight Up: 8-2 (80.0%), Points: 43.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 15-5 (75.0%), Points: 80.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 102-38 (72.9%), Points: 608.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 95-45 (67.9%), Points: 570.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 89-41 (68.5%), Points: 511.

2018-2019 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 2 Mississippi State Bulldogs 65.7% 4 Win
Week 2 Houston Cougars 57.7% 1 Win
Week 2 Oklahoma Sooners 97.6% 10 Win
Week 2 Georgia Bulldogs 79.2% 8 Win
Week 2 Iowa Hawkeyes 63.8% 2 Win
Week 2 Clemson Tigers 79.4% 9 Win
Week 2 Florida Gators 78.1% 7 Loss
Week 2 Penn State Nittany Lions 74.8% 6 Win
Week 2 Stanford Cardinal 65.2% 3 Win
Week 2 Michigan State Spartans 66.3% 5 Loss
Week 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 99.3% 10 Win
Week 1 Texas Longhorns 81.2% 6 Loss
Week 1 Texas Tech Red Raiders 51.8% 2 Loss
Week 1 Oklahoma Sooners 92.7% 8 Win
Week 1 Auburn Tigers 52% 3 Win
Week 1 West Virginia Mountaineers 77.3% 5 Win
Week 1 California Golden Bears 70.6% 4 Win
Week 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 51.1% 1 Win
Week 1 Alabama Crimson Tide 92.8% 9 Win
Week 1 Arizona Wildcats 81.7% 7 Loss