College Football Pick’em Analysis

Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 5 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
7
 Oklahoma Sooners
-260
69.5%
71.7%
70.2%
N/A
 TCU Horned Frogs
+215
30.5%
28.3%
29.8%
N/A
 North Carolina State Wolfpack
+500
15.8%
10.1%
14.1%
8
 North Carolina Tar Heels
-800
84.2%
89.9%
85.9%
3
 Auburn Tigers
-165
60.4%
64.2%
61.5%
N/A
 Mississippi Rebels
+145
39.6%
35.8%
38.5%
N/A
 Nebraska Cornhuskers
+1050
8.3%
10.6%
9%
10
 Ohio State Buckeyes
-2500
91.7%
89.4%
91%
N/A
 Iowa State Cyclones
+150
38.8%
27.4%
35.4%
5
 Oklahoma State Cowboys
-170
61.2%
72.6%
64.6%
9
 Alabama Crimson Tide
-1500
89.1%
92.7%
90.2%
N/A
 Tennessee Volunteers
+775
10.9%
7.3%
9.8%
6
 Iowa Hawkeyes
-175
61.9%
72%
64.9%
N/A
 Purdue Boilermakers
+155
38.1%
28%
35.1%
4
 Wyoming Cowboys
-200
64.3%
55.3%
61.6%
N/A
 Nevada Wolf Pack
+170
35.7%
44.7%
38.4%
2
 Michigan Wolverines
-170
61.2%
55.9%
59.6%
N/A
 Minnesota Golden Gophers
+150
38.8%
44.1%
40.4%
N/A
 Cincinnati Bearcats
+125
42.9%
43.8%
43.2%
1
 SMU Mustangs
-145
57.1%
56.2%
56.8%

Results

Last Week (Week 2): Straight Up: 6-4 (60.0%), Points: 38.
2020-2021 Season: Straight Up: 14-6 (70.0%), Points: 74.
2019-2020 Season: Straight Up: 113-37 (74.3%), Points: 680.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 102-37 (73.4%), Points: 575.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 102-38 (72.9%), Points: 608.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 95-45 (67.9%), Points: 570.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 89-41 (68.5%), Points: 511.

2020-2021 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Auburn Tigers 72% 3 Loss
Week 1 Florida Gators 80.1% 7 Loss
Week 1 Oklahoma Sooners 94.2% 10 Win
Week 1 Virginia Tech Hokies 76.4% 5 Loss
Week 1 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 73.7% 4 Loss
Week 1 Iowa State Cyclones 59.4% 2 Loss
Week 1 Cincinnati Bearcats 78.5% 6 Loss
Week 1 Louisiana Ragin’ Cagins 81.8% 8 Loss
Week 1 LSU Tigers 84.3% 9 Win
Week 1 Tennessee Volunteers 56.2% 1 Loss
Week 2 Texas Longhorns 82.8% 7 Win
Week 2 Alabama Crimson Tide 88.2% 9 Win
Week 2 Southern Methodist Mustangs 52.4% 1 Win
Week 2 Oklahoma State Cowboys 90.2% 10 Win
Week 2 North Carolina Tar Heels 78.3% 6 Win
Week 2 Kentucky Wildcats 69.9% 4 Loss
Week 2 Navy Midshipmen 64% 2 Loss
Week 2 Georgia Bulldogs 73.6% 5 Win
Week 2 Oklahoma Sooners 68.3% 3 Loss
Week 2 Mississippi State Bulldogs 87% 8 Loss
Week 3 Florida Gators 67.7% 4 Loss
Week 3 Georgia Bulldogs 81.5% 6 Win
Week 3 Oklahoma Sooners 54.2% 2 Win
Week 3 North Carolina Tar Heels 65.1% 3 Win
Week 3 Brigham Young Cougars 94.3% 9 Win
Week 3 TCU Horned Frogs 73% 5 Loss
Week 3 Clemson Tigers 82.6% 7 Win
Week 3 Kentucky Wildcats 54.1% 1 Win
Week 3 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 86.3% 8 Win
Week 4 Tennessee Volunteers 68.5% 4 Loss
Week 4 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 76.5% 6 Win
Week 4 Auburn Tigers 62.4% 2 Loss
Week 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 86.4% 8 Win
Week 4 UCF Knights 56.4% 1 Loss
Week 4 Texas A&M Aggies 67.5% 3 Win
Week 4 North Carolina Tar Heels 77% 7 Loss
Week 4 Alabama Crimson Tide 69.2% 5 Win