College Football Pick’em Analysis


Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 14 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
North Texas Mean Green
+260
26.9%
16.5%
23.8%
7
UTSA Roadrunners
-310
73.1%
83.5%
76.2%
N/A
Utah Utes
+130
42%
44.4%
42.7%
3
USC Trojans
-150
58%
55.6%
57.3%
N/A
Kansas State Wildcats
+120
44.2%
42%
43.5%
2
TCU Horned Frogs
-135
55.8%
58%
56.5%
1
Toledo Rockets
-119
52.7%
61.1%
55.2%
N/A
Ohio Bobcats
+105
47.3%
38.9%
44.8%
N/A
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
+345
21.9%
27.9%
23.7%
8
Troy Trojans
-400
78.1%
72.1%
76.3%
N/A
LSU Tigers
+615
13.6%
13.7%
13.6%
9
Georgia Bulldogs
-825
86.4%
86.3%
86.4%
N/A
UCF Knights
+155
38.9%
32.1%
36.9%
4
Tulane Green Wave
-160
61.1%
67.9%
63.1%
N/A
Fresno State Bulldogs
+150
39.4%
28.9%
36.3%
5
Boise State Broncos
-160
60.6%
71.1%
63.8%
N/A
Purdue Boilermakers
+555
14.8%
5.1%
11.9%
10
Michigan Wolverines
-730
85.2%
94.9%
88.1%
6
Clemson Tigers
-280
72.3%
68.7%
71.2%
N/A
North Carolina Tar Heels
+255
27.7%
31.3%
28.8%

Results

Last Week (Week 13): Straight Up: 5-5 (50.0%), Points: 25.
2022-2023 Season: Straight Up: 80-48 (62.5%), Points: 455.
2021-2022 Season: Straight Up: 88-52 (62.9%), Points: 530.
2020-2021 Season: Straight Up: 64-25 (69.9%), Points: 325.
2019-2020 Season: Straight Up: 113-37 (74.3%), Points: 680.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 102-37 (73.4%), Points: 575.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 102-38 (72.9%), Points: 608.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 95-45 (67.9%), Points: 570.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 89-41 (68.5%), Points: 511.

2022-2023 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Boston College Eagles 76% 6 Loss
Week 1 Arkansas Razorbacks 73.1% 5 Win
Week 1 Georgia Bulldogs 86.7% 9 Win
Week 1 San Diego State Aztecs 71.1% 4 Loss
Week 1 Houston Cougars 61.8% 3 Win
Week 1 BYU Cougars 79.9% 7 Win
Week 1 Utah Utes 57.2% 2 Loss
Week 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 87.5% 10 Win
Week 1 Mississippi State Bulldogs 81.5% 8 Win
Week 1 Oregon State Beavers 56.8% 1 Win
Week 2 Alabama Crimson Tide 86.7% 10 Win
Week 2 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 72.2% 6 Win
Week 2 Tennessee Volunteers 66.3% 5 Win
Week 2 Wisconsin Badgers 85.5% 9 Loss
Week 2 Texas Tech Red Raiders 54.6% 1 Win
Week 2 Iowa Hawkeyes 65.8% 4 Loss
Week 2 Florida Gators 64.2% 3 Loss
Week 2 USC Trojans 74.9% 7 Win
Week 2 Oklahoma State Cowboys 79% 8 Win
Week 2 BYU Cougars 58.9% 2 Win
Week 3 Oklahoma Sooners 76.1% 8 Win
Week 3 Oregon Ducks 63% 4 Win
Week 3 Penn State Nittany Lions 52.6% 1 Win
Week 3 Minnesota Golden Gophers 91.9% 10 Win
Week 3 Appalachian State Mountaineers 78.8% 9 Win
Week 3 Mississippi State Bulldogs 54.7% 2 Loss
Week 3 NC State Wolfpack 74.8% 7 Win
Week 3 Washington Huskies 55.8% 3 Win
Week 3 UCF Knights 73.4% 6 Win
Week 3 Texas A&M Aggies 72% 5 Win
Week 4 Iowa State Cyclones 50.8% 1 Loss
Week 4 Clemson Tigers 70.8% 7 Win
Week 4 Kansas Jayhawks 74.6% 9 Win
Week 4 Tennessee Volunteers 74.4% 8 Win
Week 4 Michigan State Spartans 51.6% 2 Loss
Week 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 53.1% 3 Win
Week 4 Oregon Ducks 67.8% 5 Win
Week 4 Texas A&M Aggies 54.1% 4 Win
Week 4 Oklahoma Sooners 81.8% 10 Loss
Week 4 USC Trojans 70% 6 Win
Week 5 Michigan Wolverines 72.9% 10 Win
Week 5 Ole Miss Rebels 68.1% 8 Win
Week 5 Oklahoma Sooners 67.9% 7 Loss
Week 5 Baylor Bears 54.8% 1 Loss
Week 5 Florida State Seminoles 67.3% 6 Loss
Week 5 Iowa State Cyclones 62.6% 3 Loss
Week 5 UCF Knights 62.9% 4 Push
Week 5 Mississippi State Bulldogs 59.4% 2 Win
Week 5 Washington State Cougars 66.3% 5 Win
Week 5 Clemson Tigers 71.3% 9 Win
Week 6 Texas Longhorns 65.3% 7 Win
Week 6 TCU Horned Frogs 70.4% 9 Win
Week 6 Tennessee Volunteers 55.3% 2 Win
Week 6 Utah Utes 65.1% 6 Loss
Week 6 Miami Hurricanes 58.9% 3 Loss
Week 6 UTSA Roadrunners 66.8% 8 Win
Week 6 Kansas State Wildcats 50.5% 1 Win
Week 6 USC Trojans 80.6% 10 Win
Week 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 60.9% 4 Win
Week 6 NC State Wolfpack 63.1% 5 Win
Week 7 Michigan Wolverines 69.6% 9 Win
Week 7 Oklahoma Sooners 72.2% 10 Win
Week 7 Minnesota Golden Gophers 61.4% 5 Loss
Week 7 Alabama Crimson Tide 69.3% 8 Loss
Week 7 TCU Horned Frogs 54.9% 1 Win
Week 7 Syracuse Orange 55.1% 2 Win
Week 7 Clemson Tigers 67% 6 Win
Week 7 Mississippi State Bulldogs 67.4% 7 Loss
Week 7 Utah Utes 61.3% 4 Win
Week 7 Oregon State Beavers 61% 3 Win
Week 8 Cincinnati Bearcats 60.8% 2 Win
Week 8 Toledo Rockets 69.1% 10 Loss
Week 8 LSU Tigers 52.7% 1 Win
Week 8 Oregon Ducks 65.8% 6 Win
Week 8 Texas Longhorns 66.2% 7 Loss
Week 8 Tulane Green Wave 68.1% 8 Win
Week 8 BYU Cougars 69% 9 Loss
Week 8 Penn State Nittany Lions 65.2% 5 Win
Week 8 UCF Knights 62.8% 4 Loss
Week 8 TCU Horned Frogs 61.4% 3 Win
Week 9 Ohio State Buckeyes 81.6% 7 Win
Week 9 Syracuse Orange 57.3% 4 Loss
Week 9 Jackson State Tigers 89.1% 10 Win
Week 9 Kansas State Wildcats 51.2% 1 Win
Week 9 Illinois Fighting Illini 71.1% 6 Win
Week 9 Cincinnati Bearcats 52% 2 Loss
Week 9 South Carolina Gamecocks 65.1% 5 Loss
Week 9 Tennessee Volunteers 82.2% 8 Win
Week 9 Ole Miss Rebels 56.7% 3 Win
Week 9 UCLA Bruins 85.2% 9 Win
Week 10 Oklahoma Sooners 61.1% 3 Loss
Week 10 Georgia Bulldogs 73% 8 Win
Week 10 UAB Blazers 50.6% 1 Loss
Week 10 South Alabama Jaguars 61.4% 4 Win
Week 10 Arkansas Razorbacks 81.1% 10 Loss
Week 10 Troy Trojans 63.4% 7 Win
Week 10 Alabama Crimson Tide 79.8% 9 Loss
Week 10 Texas Longhorns 54.7% 2 Win
Week 10 Clemson Tigers 62.2% 6 Loss
Week 10 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 62% 5 Loss
Week 11 LSU Tigers 60.1% 6 Win
Week 11 Illinois Fighting Illini 68.7% 8 Loss
Week 11 Iowa State Cyclones 51% 1 Loss
Week 11 Alabama Crimson Tide 78.6% 10 Win
Week 11 Tulane Green Wave 56.4% 3 Loss
Week 11 Wisconsin Badgers 51.7% 2 Loss
Week 11 Baylor Bears 57.9% 4 Loss
Week 11 Texas Longhorns 73.2% 9 Loss
Week 11 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 60.8% 7 Loss
Week 11 San Jose State Spartans 58.3% 5 Loss
Week 12 TCU Horned Frogs 56.3% 2 Win
Week 12 Montana State Bobcats 58.2% 4 Win
Week 12 Kansas State Wildcats 75% 8 Win
Week 12 Minnesota Golden Gophers 56.1% 1 Loss
Week 12 Boise State Broncos 79.9% 9 Win
Week 12 Oklahoma Sooners 72.2% 7 Win
Week 12 Ole Miss Rebels 58.8% 5 Loss
Week 12 USC Trojans 60.6% 6 Win
Week 12 Oregon Ducks 58.1% 3 Loss
Week 13 Ohio State Buckeyes 74.1% 8 Loss
Week 13 Clemson Tigers 82.3% 10 Loss
Week 13 James Madison Dukes 80.6% 9 Win
Week 13 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 69.2% 7 Win
Week 13 Oregon Ducks 60% 3 Loss
Week 13 Wisconsin Badgers 61.8% 5 Loss
Week 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 61.2% 4 Loss
Week 13 USC Trojans 67.4% 6 Win
Week 13 Air Force Falcons 55.2% 1 Win
Week 13 Washington Huskies 56.6% 2 Win