College Football Pick’em Analysis

Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 13 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
5
 Michigan Wolverines
-200
64.3%
52.8%
60.9%
N/A
 Ohio State Buckeyes
+170
35.7%
47.2%
39.2%
N/A
 Syracuse Orange
+240
28.5%
43.8%
33.1%
6
 Boston College Eagles
-280
71.5%
56.2%
66.9%
7
 Florida Gators
-225
66.4%
74.8%
68.9%
N/A
 Florida State Seminoles
+185
33.6%
25.2%
31.1%
3
 Marshall Thundering Herd
-135
55.3%
51.9%
54.3%
N/A
 Florida International Golden Panthers
+115
44.7%
48.1%
45.7%
N/A
 Troy Trojans
+350
21.4%
27.7%
23.3%
8
 Appalachian State Mountaineers
-440
78.6%
72.3%
76.7%
N/A
 UAB Blazers
-130
54.3%
37.5%
49.3%
1
 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
+110
45.7%
62.5%
50.7%
N/A
 Auburn Tigers
+1450
6.3%
2.5%
5.2%
10
 Alabama Crimson Tide
-2750
93.7%
97.5%
94.8%
N/A
 LSU Tigers
+120
43.8%
52.4%
46.4%
2
 Texas A&M Aggies
-140
56.2%
47.6%
53.6%
9
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-430
78.3%
78.4%
78.3%
N/A
 USC Trojans
+345
21.7%
21.6%
21.7%
N/A
 Utah State Aggies
+120
43.8%
42.4%
43.4%
4
 Boise State Broncos
-140
56.2%
57.6%
56.6%

Results

Last Week (Week 12): Straight Up: 9-1 (90.0%), Points: 52.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 86-33 (72.3%), Points: 481.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 102-38 (72.9%), Points: 608.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 95-45 (67.9%), Points: 570.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 89-41 (68.5%), Points: 511.

2018-2019 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 12 Kentucky Wildcats 85.1% 9 Win
Week 12 Utah Utes 72.4% 5 Win
Week 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 74.6% 7 Win
Week 12 West Virginia Mountaineers 65.2% 3 Loss
Week 12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 68.6% 4 Win
Week 12 Texas A&M Aggies 86.4% 10 Win
Week 12 Texas Longhorns 60.8% 1 Win
Week 12 UCF Knights 73.9% 6 Win
Week 12 Fresno State Bulldogs 82.8% 8 Win
Week 12 Oregon Ducks 64.5% 2 Win
Week 11 Ohio State Buckeyes 59% 2 Win
Week 11 Penn State Nittany Lions 73% 6 Win
Week 11 Troy Trojans 51.9% 1 Win
Week 11 Iowa Hawkeyes 76.2% 7 Loss
Week 11 Washington State Cougars 67.7% 5 Win
Week 11 Oklahoma Sooners 89.4% 10 Win
Week 11 Pittsburgh Panthers 59.7% 3 Win
Week 11 Utah Utes 66.5% 4 Win
Week 11 Cincinnati Bearcats 78% 8 Win
Week 11 Clemson Tigers 87.2% 9 Win
Week 10 Texas Longhorns 52.4% 1 Loss
Week 10 Georgia Bulldogs 77.2% 8 Win
Week 10 Purdue Boilermakers 54.9% 2 Win
Week 10 Michigan Wolverines 74.8% 7 Win
Week 10 Boston College Eagles 57.9% 3 Win
Week 10 Utah Utes 70.4% 4 Loss
Week 10 Houston Cougars 81.4% 10 Loss
Week 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 73.7% 5 Win
Week 10 Alabama Crimson Tide 81.1% 9 Win
Week 10 Washington Huskies 73.9% 6 Win
Week 9 Wisconsin Badgers 68.8% 6 Loss
Week 9 Clemson Tigers 85.4% 9 Win
Week 9 Michigan State Spartans 56.1% 1 Win
Week 9 Iowa State Cyclones 62.7% 4 Win
Week 9 Penn State Nittany Lions 68.3% 5 Win
Week 9 Georgia Bulldogs 73.3% 8 Win
Week 9 Houston Cougars 70.8% 7 Win
Week 9 Stanford Cardinal 60.8% 3 Loss
Week 9 Texas Longhorns 57.5% 2 Loss
Week 9 Fresno State Bulldogs 94.5% 10 Win
Week 8 Oklahoma Sooners 73.8% 7 Win
Week 8 Michigan Wolverines 67.7% 4 Win
Week 8 Temple Owls 62.5% 3 Win
Week 8 Penn State Nittany Lions 83.3% 8 Win
Week 8 Clemson Tigers 85.5% 10 Win
Week 8 Washington Huskies 83.4% 9 Win
Week 8 LSU Tigers 69.1% 5 Win
Week 8 Washington State Cougars 61% 2 Win
Week 8 UAB Blazers 52.3% 1 Win
Week 8 Utah Utes 70.4% 6 Win
Week 7 Penn State Nittany Lions 81.4% 10 Loss
Week 7 Georgia Bulldogs 73.8% 9 Loss
Week 7 Washington Huskies 64.1% 4 Loss
Week 7 Northern Illinois Huskies 61.2% 2 Win
Week 7 UCF Knights 68.3% 5 Win
Week 7 West Virginia Mountaineers 64% 3 Loss
Week 7 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 69.4% 6 Loss
Week 7 Michigan Wolverines 70.3% 7 Win
Week 7 Florida International Golden Panthers 52.4% 1 Win
Week 7 USC Trojans 70.8% 8 Win
Week 6 Oklahoma Sooners 73.5% 6 Loss
Week 6 Michigan Wolverines 86.8% 10 Win
Week 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys 75% 7 Loss
Week 6 Boise State Broncos 82.7% 9 Loss
Week 6 LSU Tigers 58.7% 4 Loss
Week 6 Colorado Buffaloes 55.6% 2 Win
Week 6 Texas A&M Aggies 65.1% 5 Win
Week 6 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 75.4% 8 Loss
Week 6 Mississippi State Bulldogs 55.9% 3 Win
Week 6 Virginia Tech Hokies 52.2% 1 Loss
Week 5 West Virginia Mountaineers 59.2% 3 Win
Week 5 Buffalo Bulls 71.4% 8 Loss
Week 5 North Carolina State Wolfpack 68.9% 6 Win
Week 5 Mississippi State Bulldogs 70.9% 7 Loss
Week 5 Utah Utes 52.6% 2 Loss
Week 5 TCU Horned Frogs 75.1% 9 Win
Week 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 62.5% 5 Win
Week 5 South Carolina Gamecocks 50.2% 1 Loss
Week 5 Ohio State Buckeyes 60% 4 Win
Week 5 Washington Huskies 87.3% 10 Win
Week 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 68.8% 8 Win
Week 4 South Carolina Gamecocks 58.3% 4 Win
Week 4 TCU Horned Frogs 56.4% 2 Loss
Week 4 Florida Gators 65.8% 5 Win
Week 4 Mississippi State Bulldogs 76.2% 9 Loss
Week 4 Troy Trojans 67.9% 7 Win
Week 4 Michigan State Spartans 67.2% 6 Win
Week 4 Stanford Cardinal 55.3% 1 Win
Week 4 Wisconsin Badgers 58% 3 Win
Week 4 Washington Huskies 87.6% 10 Win
Week 3 Oklahoma Sooners 85.5% 9 Win
Week 3 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 60.7% 3 Loss
Week 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 82.3% 8 Win
Week 3 Auburn Tigers 76% 6 Loss
Week 3 Oklahoma State Cowboys 62% 4 Win
Week 3 Ohio State Buckeyes 76.2% 7 Win
Week 3 Texas Longhorns 59.6% 2 Win
Week 3 Washington Huskies 69.6% 5 Win
Week 3 UCLA Bruins 50.7% 1 Loss
Week 2 Mississippi State Bulldogs 65.7% 4 Win
Week 2 Houston Cougars 57.7% 1 Win
Week 2 Oklahoma Sooners 97.6% 10 Win
Week 2 Georgia Bulldogs 79.2% 8 Win
Week 2 Iowa Hawkeyes 63.8% 2 Win
Week 2 Clemson Tigers 79.4% 9 Win
Week 2 Florida Gators 78.1% 7 Loss
Week 2 Penn State Nittany Lions 74.8% 6 Win
Week 2 Stanford Cardinal 65.2% 3 Win
Week 2 Michigan State Spartans 66.3% 5 Loss
Week 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 99.3% 10 Win
Week 1 Texas Longhorns 81.2% 6 Loss
Week 1 Texas Tech Red Raiders 51.8% 2 Loss
Week 1 Oklahoma Sooners 92.7% 8 Win
Week 1 Auburn Tigers 52% 3 Win
Week 1 West Virginia Mountaineers 77.3% 5 Win
Week 1 California Golden Bears 70.6% 4 Win
Week 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 51.1% 1 Win
Week 1 Alabama Crimson Tide 92.8% 9 Win
Week 1 Arizona Wildcats 81.7% 7 Loss