College Football Pick’em Analysis

Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 8 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Odds Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
5
 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
-155
59.8%
59.2%
59.6%
N/A
 Army Black Knights
+145
40.2%
40.8%
40.4%
10
 Cincinnati Bearcats
-4100
92.8%
96.2%
93.8%
N/A
 Navy Midshipmen
+1225
7.2%
3.8%
6.2%
N/A
 Oklahoma State Cowboys
+220
30.2%
33.9%
31.3%
8
 Iowa State Cyclones
-260
69.8%
66.1%
68.7%
N/A
 Oregon Ducks
+115
44.7%
55.8%
48%
1
 UCLA Bruins
-135
55.3%
44.2%
52%
N/A
 Clemson Tigers
+140
40.5%
50.9%
43.6%
2
 Pittsburgh Panthers
-157
59.5%
49.1%
56.4%
N/A
 San Diego State Aztecs
+160
37.7%
40.3%
38.5%
6
 Air Force Falcons
-175
62.3%
59.7%
61.5%
N/A
 Nevada Wolf Pack
+135
41.5%
42.6%
41.8%
4
 Fresno State Bulldogs
-150
58.5%
57.4%
58.2%
N/A
 USC Trojans
+220
30.4%
36.9%
32.4%
7
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-250
69.6%
63.1%
67.7%
9
 Ohio State Buckeyes
-1150
89%
82.5%
87.1%
N/A
 Indiana Hoosiers
+775
11%
17.5%
13%
3
 NC State Wolfpack
-145
57.6%
55.4%
56.9%
N/A
 Miami Hurricanes
+130
42.4%
44.6%
43.1%

Results

Last Week (Week 7): Straight Up: 6-4 (60.0%), Points: 33.
2021-2022 Season: Straight Up: 43-27 (61.4%), Points: 255.
2020-2021 Season: Straight Up: 64-25 (69.9%), Points: 325.
2019-2020 Season: Straight Up: 113-37 (74.3%), Points: 680.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 102-37 (73.4%), Points: 575.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 102-38 (72.9%), Points: 608.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 95-45 (67.9%), Points: 570.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 89-41 (68.5%), Points: 511.

2021-2022 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Wisconsin Badgers 65.9% 6 Loss
Week 1 Oklahoma Sooners 94.7% 10 Win
Week 1 Alabama Crimson Tide 88.8% 9 Win
Week 1 Iowa Hawkeyes 60.1% 4 Win
Week 1 West Virginia Mountaineers 61% 5 Loss
Week 1 Texas Longhorns 72.7% 7 Win
Week 1 Houston Cougars 50.2% 1 Loss
Week 1 Clemson Tigers 58.9% 3 Loss
Week 1 LSU Tigers 55.6% 2 Loss
Week 1 Brigham Young Cougars 77.9% 8 Win
Week 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 83.5% 7 Loss
Week 2 Pittsburgh Panthers 58.4% 2 Win
Week 2 Florida Gators 94.6% 10 Win
Week 2 Texas A&M Aggies 87.7% 9 Win
Week 2 Iowa State Cyclones 67.2% 3 Loss
Week 2 Texas Longhorns 70.1% 6 Loss
Week 2 NC State Wolfpack 51.3% 1 Loss
Week 2 Michigan Wolverines 67.6% 4 Win
Week 2 Utah Utes 69.2% 5 Loss
Week 2 USC Trojans 87.5% 8 Loss
Week 3 Oklahoma Sooners 90.7% 10 Win
Week 3 Cincinnati Bearcats 59% 2 Win
Week 3 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 75.9% 8 Win
Week 3 West Virginia Mountaineers 57% 1 Win
Week 3 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 70.5% 6 Loss
Week 3 Alabama Crimson Tide 83.7% 9 Win
Week 3 Utah Utes 73.6% 7 Loss
Week 3 Penn State Nittany Lions 67.6% 5 Win
Week 3 Boise State Broncos 61.5% 4 Loss
Week 3 Arizona State Sun Devils 61.4% 3 Loss
Week 4 Wisconsin Badgers 65.5% 3 Loss
Week 4 Texas Longhorns 75.5% 7 Win
Week 4 Iowa State Cyclones 72.6% 6 Loss
Week 4 Texas A&M Aggies 67.5% 4 Loss
Week 4 Michigan Wolverines 85.6% 9 Win
Week 4 Memphis Tigers 62.3% 1 Loss
Week 4 UCLA Bruins 65% 2 Win
Week 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys 70.5% 5 Win
Week 4 Oklahoma Sooners 86.3% 10 Win
Week 4 USC Trojans 81% 8 Loss
Week 5 Georgia Bulldogs 84.5% 9 Win
Week 5 Michigan Wolverines 56.5% 3 Win
Week 5 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 62.9% 4 Win
Week 5 Cincinnati Bearcats 54.6% 2 Win
Week 5 Alabama Crimson Tide 83.4% 8 Win
Week 5 Ohio State Buckeyes 88.2% 10 Win
Week 5 Oregon Ducks 79.9% 6 Loss
Week 5 Oklahoma Sooners 80.7% 7 Win
Week 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys 65.4% 5 Win
Week 5 Auburn Tigers 53.5% 1 Win
Week 6 Oklahoma Sooners 61.1% 5 Win
Week 6 Mississippi Rebels 66.3% 8 Win
Week 6 Georgia Bulldogs 82.4% 10 Win
Week 6 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 67.5% 9 Win
Week 6 Brigham Young Cougars 63% 7 Loss
Week 6 Iowa Hawkeyes 53.8% 2 Win
Week 6 Oregon State Beavers 62.3% 6 Loss
Week 6 Michigan Wolverines 58.9% 4 Win
Week 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 52.3% 1 Win
Week 6 Kentucky Wildcats 57.6% 3 Win
Week 7 Cincinnati Bearcats 88.6% 9 Win
Week 7 Texas Longhorns 68.7% 6 Loss
Week 7 Florida Gators 75% 7 Loss
Week 7 Georgia Bulldogs 90.9% 10 Win
Week 7 Iowa Hawkeyes 81.8% 8 Loss
Week 7 Baylor Bears 56.5% 3 Win
Week 7 Pittsburgh Panthers 62.2% 4 Win
Week 7 Iowa State Cyclones 68.3% 5 Win
Week 7 NC State Wolfpack 55.7% 2 Win
Week 7 Arizona State Sun Devils 50.2% 1 Loss