Bowl Mania Analysis


Game: Bowl Mania
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Bowl Mania

How does it work?: The College Football bowl season runs from the beginning of December until the National Championship game in early January. There are 40+ bowl games that the contestant must select a winner. For Bowl Mania, there are two possible scoring systems that can be chosen. We describe each below.

Strategy: Our numbers in the analysis table are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

How to Play

The college bowl pick’em game can be played under two scoring systems on ESPN. The simplest approach is to make picks for the winner of each game, and you are scored based on the number of correct picks. The second scoring system requires you to both make picks and provide your confidence by ranking the games in the order of most to least likely to be correct. This adds a little more of a twist in the scoring to makes things more interesting.

In our analysis table below, we have provided you with a good starting point for making your own picks. These are our recommended picks based on a combination of odds for each game using DRatings.

For those using the confidence based scoring system, be aware that you must make your pick and confidence before each game begins.

There is obviously some strategy involved in picking confidence since we do not know who will play in the National Championship game. For our pick on that game, we used a weighted average of all the possible scenarios to provide you with the current expectation on who is likely to win in case you want to go ahead and make all your picks and confidence selections now. Of course it’s likely better to wait on this game as far as the winner goes, but you may want to go ahead and lock the confidence position ahead of time or if you’re fully uncertain then you can always make this one have the lowest confidence.

2023-2024 College Football Bowl Mania Predictions

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
Ohio Bobcats
+155
38.4%
50.5%
42%
13
Georgia Southern Eagles
-170
61.6%
49.5%
58%
25
Florida A&M Rattlers
-205
64.5%
67.8%
65.5%
N/A
Howard Bison
+170
35.5%
32.2%
34.5%
N/A
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
+135
41.5%
56.7%
46.1%
7
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
-150
58.5%
43.3%
53.9%
23
Appalachian State Mountaineers
-210
65.5%
58.2%
63.3%
N/A
Miami (OH) Redhawks
+180
34.5%
41.8%
36.7%
N/A
Fresno State Bulldogs
+140
40.7%
49.5%
43.3%
12
New Mexico State Aggies
-155
59.3%
50.5%
56.7%
N/A
Boise State Broncos
+120
44.2%
48.7%
45.6%
10
UCLA Bruins
-135
55.8%
51.3%
54.5%
15
Texas Tech Red Raiders
-140
57.8%
60.6%
58.6%
N/A
California Golden Bears
+135
42.2%
39.4%
41.4%
4
Old Dominion Monarchs
-130
55.4%
44%
52%
N/A
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
+120
44.6%
56%
48%
N/A
Marshall Thundering Herd
+300
24.6%
28%
25.6%
33
UTSA Roadrunners
-330
75.4%
72%
74.4%
19
Syracuse Orange
-155
59.3%
67.6%
61.8%
N/A
South Florida Bulls
+140
40.7%
32.4%
38.2%
28
UCF Knights
-185
64.5%
74.3%
67.4%
N/A
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
+180
35.5%
25.7%
32.6%
N/A
Northern Illinois Huskies
-105
49.4%
45.1%
48.1%
3
Arkansas State Red Wolves
-110
50.6%
54.9%
51.9%
N/A
Duke Blue Devils
+255
27.7%
26.9%
27.5%
31
Troy Trojans
-280
72.3%
73.1%
72.5%
N/A
Air Force Falcons
+135
41.8%
35.7%
40%
16
James Madison Dukes
-145
58.2%
64.3%
60%
N/A
Utah State Aggies
-110
50.6%
41.1%
47.8%
5
Georgia State Panthers
-105
49.4%
58.9%
52.3%
N/A
Eastern Michigan Eagles
+550
15%
10.9%
13.8%
42
South Alabama Jaguars
-700
85%
89.1%
86.2%
N/A
Northwestern Wildcats
+230
29.3%
17.4%
25.7%
32
Utah Utes
-270
70.7%
82.6%
74.3%
37
San Jose State Spartans
-330
76.1%
75.5%
75.9%
N/A
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
+315
23.9%
24.5%
24.1%
26
Minnesota Golden Gophers
-180
62.6%
75.7%
66.5%
N/A
Bowling Green Falcons
+160
37.4%
24.3%
33.5%
N/A
Rice Owls
+165
37%
40.1%
37.9%
21
Texas State Bobcats
-180
63%
59.9%
62.1%
N/A
UNLV Rebels
+380
20.4%
19.5%
20.1%
39
Kansas Jayhawks
-440
79.6%
80.5%
79.9%
N/A
Tulane Green Wave
+255
27.3%
38.7%
30.7%
30
Virginia Tech Hokies
-300
72.7%
61.3%
69.3%
6
West Virginia Mountaineers
-150
59.5%
40.1%
53.7%
N/A
North Carolina Tar Heels
+145
40.5%
59.9%
46.3%
N/A
USC Trojans
+240
28.6%
40%
32%
29
Louisville Cardinals
-275
71.4%
60%
68%
N/A
Oklahoma State Cowboys
+140
41%
25.5%
36.4%
24
Texas A&M Aggies
-150
59%
74.5%
63.7%
N/A
Boston College Eagles
+330
22.5%
16.1%
20.6%
38
SMU Mustangs
-400
77.5%
83.9%
79.4%
14
Miami Hurricanes
-140
56.8%
61.3%
58.2%
N/A
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
+125
43.2%
38.7%
41.9%
22
Kansas State Wildcats
-150
59.5%
71.8%
63.2%
N/A
NC State Wolfpack
+145
40.5%
28.2%
36.8%
N/A
Oklahoma Sooners
+135
41.5%
55.5%
45.7%
8
Arizona Wildcats
-150
58.5%
44.5%
54.3%
N/A
Kentucky Wildcats
+196
32.9%
32.7%
32.8%
27
Clemson Tigers
-220
67.1%
67.3%
67.2%
36
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-310
74.7%
78.4%
75.8%
N/A
Oregon State Beavers
+290
25.3%
21.6%
24.2%
34
Iowa State Cyclones
-310
73.7%
77.2%
74.8%
N/A
Memphis Tigers
+270
26.3%
22.8%
25.3%
N/A
Ohio State Buckeyes
+125
43.2%
51.3%
45.6%
9
Missouri Tigers
-140
56.8%
48.7%
54.4%
17
Penn State Nittany Lions
-165
60.9%
60%
60.6%
N/A
Ole Miss Rebels
+150
39.1%
40%
39.4%
N/A
Maryland Terrapins
+115
45.1%
58.1%
49%
2
Auburn Tigers
-130
54.9%
41.9%
51%
N/A
Florida State Seminoles
+475
16.9%
15.8%
16.6%
41
Georgia Bulldogs
-600
83.1%
84.2%
83.4%
1
Wyoming Cowboys
-150
58%
34.2%
50.9%
N/A
Toledo Rockets
+130
42%
65.8%
49.1%
40
LSU Tigers
-365
77.1%
91.9%
81.5%
N/A
Wisconsin Badgers
+330
22.9%
8.1%
18.5%
43
Oregon Ducks
-800
86.2%
88%
86.7%
N/A
Liberty Flames
+600
13.8%
12%
13.3%
35
Tennessee Volunteers
-305
73.1%
79.9%
75.1%
N/A
Iowa Hawkeyes
+260
26.9%
20.1%
24.9%
11
Michigan Wolverines
-120
52.8%
63.9%
56.1%
N/A
Alabama Crimson Tide
+105
47.2%
36.1%
43.9%
N/A
Washington Huskies
+165
37.2%
43.9%
39.2%
18
Texas Longhorns
-175
62.8%
56.1%
60.8%
20
MICH/ALA
62%
N/A
WASH/TEX
38%

Results

2023-2024 Bowl Season Pick Results

Pick Probability Confidence Result
Georgia Southern Eagles 58% 13 Loss
Florida A&M Rattlers 65.5% 25 Win
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 53.9% 7 Win
Appalachian State Mountaineers 63.3% 23 Win
New Mexico State Aggies 56.7% 12 Loss
UCLA Bruins 54.5% 10 Win
Texas Tech Red Raiders 58.6% 15 Win
Old Dominion Monarchs 52% 4 Loss
UTSA Roadrunners 74.4% 33 Win
Syracuse Orange 61.8% 19 Loss
UCF Knights 67.4% 28 Loss
Arkansas State Red Wolves 51.9% 3 Loss
Troy Trojans 72.5% 31 Loss
James Madison Dukes 60% 16 Loss
Georgia State Panthers 52.3% 5 Win
South Alabama Jaguars 86.2% 42 Win
Utah Utes 74.3% 32 Loss
San Jose State Spartans 75.9% 37 Loss
Minnesota Golden Gophers 66.5% 26 Win
Texas State Bobcats 62.1% 21 Win
Kansas Jayhawks 79.9% 39 Win
Virginia Tech Hokies 69.3% 30 Win
West Virginia Mountaineers 53.7% 6 Win
Louisville Cardinals 68% 29 Loss
Texas A&M Aggies 63.7% 24 Loss
SMU Mustangs 79.4% 38 Loss
Miami Hurricanes 58.2% 14 Loss
Kansas State Wildcats 63.2% 22 Win
Arizona Wildcats 54.3% 8 Win
Clemson Tigers 67.2% 27 Win
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 75.8% 36 Win
Iowa State Cyclones 74.8% 34 Loss
Missouri Tigers 54.4% 9 Win
Penn State Nittany Lions 60.6% 17 Loss
Auburn Tigers 51% 2 Loss
Georgia Bulldogs 83.4% 41 Win
Wyoming Cowboys 50.9% 1 Win
LSU Tigers 81.5% 40 Win
Oregon Ducks 86.7% 43 Win
Tennessee Volunteers 75.1% 35 Win
Michigan Wolverines 56.1% 11 Win
Texas Longhorns 60.8% 18 Loss
MICH/ALA 62% 20 Win

2023-2024 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 946
Expected Points: 669.4 Actual Points: 575 Point Diff: -94.4
Projected Wins: 28.0 Actual Wins: 25 Win Diff: -3.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 18

2022-2023 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 946
Expected Points: 661.5 Actual Points: 598 Point Diff: -63.5
Projected Wins: 27.9 Actual Wins: 27 Win Diff: -0.9
Projected Losses: 15.1 Actual Losses: 16

2019-2020 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 615.1 Actual Points: 672 Point Diff: +56.9
Projected Wins: 27.0 Actual Wins: 32 Win Diff: -5.0
Projected Losses: 14.0 Actual Losses: 9

2018-2019 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 583.9 Actual Points: 461 Point Diff: -122.9
Projected Wins: 26.0 Actual Wins: 20 Win Diff: -6.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 20

2017-2018 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 589.4 Actual Points: 494 Point Diff: -95.4
Projected Wins: 26.0 Actual Wins: 24 Win Diff: -2.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 17

2016-2017 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 645.2 Actual Points: 615 Point Diff: -30.2
Projected Wins: 28.0 Actual Wins: 26 Win Diff: -2.0
Projected Losses: 14.0 Actual Losses: 16

2015-2016 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 626.3 Actual Points: 678 Point Diff: +51.7
Projected Wins: 27.3 Actual Wins: 29 Win Diff: +1.7
Projected Losses: 14.7 Actual Losses: 13