Bowl Mania Analysis


Game: Bowl Mania
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Bowl Mania

How does it work?: The College Football bowl season runs from the beginning of December until the National Championship game in early January. There are 40+ bowl games that the contestant must select a winner. For Bowl Mania, there are two possible scoring systems that can be chosen. We describe each below.

Strategy: Our numbers in the analysis table are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

How to Play

The college bowl pick’em game can be played under two scoring systems on ESPN. The simplest approach is to make picks for the winner of each game, and you are scored based on the number of correct picks. The second scoring system requires you to both make picks and provide your confidence by ranking the games in the order of most to least likely to be correct. This adds a little more of a twist in the scoring to makes things more interesting.

In our analysis table below, we have provided you with a good starting point for making your own picks. These are our recommended picks based on a combination of odds for each game using DRatings.

For those using the confidence based scoring system, be aware that you must make your pick and confidence before each game begins.

There is obviously some strategy involved in picking confidence since we do not know who will play in the National Championship game. For our pick on that game, we used a weighted average of all the possible scenarios to provide you with the current expectation on who is likely to win in case you want to go ahead and make all your picks and confidence selections now. Of course it’s likely better to wait on this game as far as the winner goes, but you may want to go ahead and lock the confidence position ahead of time or if you’re fully uncertain then you can always make this one have the lowest confidence.

2022-2023 College Football Bowl Mania Predictions

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
Miami (OH) RedHawks
+345
21.9%
25%
22.8%
39
UAB Blazers
-400
78.1%
75%
77.2%
N/A
UTSA Roadrunners
+106
46.8%
54%
49%
2
Troy Trojans
-123
53.2%
46%
51%
N/A
Cincinnati Bearcats
+105
47.4%
50.4%
48.3%
3
Louisville Cardinals
-118
52.6%
49.6%
51.7%
43
Jackson State Tigers
-715
85.6%
91.5%
87.4%
N/A
North Carolina Central Eagles
+575
14.4%
8.5%
12.6%
N/A
Florida Gators
+300
24.2%
33.8%
27.1%
34
Oregon State Beavers
-360
75.8%
66.2%
72.9%
N/A
Washington State Cougars
+145
39.9%
52.3%
43.6%
10
Fresno State Bulldogs
-160
60.1%
47.7%
56.4%
N/A
Rice Owls
+215
30.9%
41.5%
34.1%
26
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
-245
69.1%
58.5%
65.9%
20
SMU Mustangs
-200
65.1%
62.1%
64.2%
N/A
BYU Cougars
+180
34.9%
37.9%
35.8%
N/A
North Texas Mean Green
+315
23.4%
18.5%
21.9%
40
Boise State Broncos
-375
76.6%
81.5%
78.1%
41
Marshall Thundering Herd
-360
76.5%
84.1%
78.8%
N/A
Connecticut Huskies
+315
23.5%
15.9%
21.2%
N/A
Eastern Michigan Eagles
+155
38.1%
27.3%
34.9%
23
San Jose State Spartans
-175
61.9%
72.7%
65.1%
N/A
Liberty Flames
+175
35.5%
39.7%
36.8%
19
Toledo Rockets
-195
64.5%
60.3%
63.2%
N/A
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
+255
27.1%
36.2%
29.8%
30
South Alabama Jaguars
-310
72.9%
63.8%
70.2%
29
Baylor Bears
-230
67.6%
70.6%
68.5%
N/A
Air Force Falcons
+200
32.4%
29.4%
31.5%
N/A
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
+210
31.1%
25.8%
29.5%
31
Houston Cougars
-250
68.9%
74.2%
70.5%
8
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
-118
52%
60%
54.4%
N/A
Missouri Tigers
+100
48%
40%
45.6%
N/A
MTSU Blue Raiders
+230
29.6%
37.9%
32.1%
28
San Diego State Aztecs
-260
70.4%
62.1%
67.9%
N/A
New Mexico State Aggies
+145
39.9%
46.7%
41.9%
14
Bowling Green Falcons
-160
60.1%
53.3%
58.1%
15
Georgia Southern Eagles
-165
61.4%
56.4%
59.9%
N/A
Buffalo Bulls
+155
38.6%
43.6%
40.1%
35
Memphis Tigers
-270
71.3%
77.8%
73.3%
N/A
Utah State Aggies
+240
28.7%
22.2%
26.8%
N/A
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
+275
25.9%
25.8%
25.9%
36
East Carolina Pirates
-325
74.1%
74.2%
74.1%
13
Wisconsin Badgers
-150
58%
58%
58%
N/A
Oklahoma State Cowboys
+130
42%
42%
42%
N/A
UCF Knights
+110
46.2%
57.6%
49.6%
1
Duke Blue Devils
-125
53.8%
42.4%
50.4%
N/A
Kansas Jayhawks
+140
41%
33%
38.6%
16
Arkansas Razorbacks
-150
59%
67%
61.4%
N/A
North Carolina Tar Heels
+425
18.4%
20.3%
19%
42
Oregon Ducks
-540
81.6%
79.7%
81%
N/A
Texas Tech Red Raiders
+155
38.6%
35.6%
37.7%
17
Ole Miss Rebels
-165
61.4%
64.4%
62.3%
N/A
Syracuse Orange
+250
27.8%
26.4%
27.4%
33
Minnesota Golden Gophers
-290
72.2%
73.6%
72.6%
N/A
Oklahoma Sooners
+255
27.3%
32.5%
28.9%
32
Florida State Seminoles
-300
72.7%
67.5%
71.1%
24
Texas Longhorns
-210
65.5%
64.4%
65.2%
N/A
Washington Huskies
+180
34.5%
35.6%
34.8%
11
Maryland Terrapins
-123
53.1%
64.5%
56.5%
N/A
NC State Wolfpack
+105
46.9%
35.5%
43.5%
N/A
Pittsburgh Panthers
+195
33%
41.8%
35.6%
22
UCLA Bruins
-220
67%
58.2%
64.4%
12
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-135
55.3%
61.5%
57.2%
N/A
South Carolina Gamecocks
+115
44.7%
38.5%
42.8%
4
Ohio Bobcats
-118
52%
54.7%
52.8%
N/A
Wyoming Cowboys
+100
48%
45.3%
47.2%
N/A
Tennessee Volunteers
+210
31.1%
42.2%
34.4%
25
Clemson Tigers
-250
68.9%
57.8%
65.6%
18
Alabama Crimson Tide
-150
59%
71.3%
62.7%
N/A
Kansas State Wildcats
+140
41%
28.7%
37.3%
7
Iowa Hawkeyes
-123
53.7%
54.8%
54%
N/A
Kentucky Wildcats
+110
46.3%
45.2%
46%
N/A
TCU Horned Frogs
+250
27.8%
13.2%
23.4%
38
Michigan Wolverines
-285
72.2%
86.8%
76.6%
N/A
Ohio State Buckeyes
+220
30.3%
41.3%
33.6%
27
Georgia Bulldogs
-255
69.7%
58.7%
66.4%
N/A
Mississippi State Bulldogs
+115
45.1%
51.8%
47.1%
5
Illinois Fighting Illini
-130
54.9%
48.2%
52.9%
N/A
Tulane Green Wave
+100
48%
42.6%
46.4%
6
USC Trojans
-118
52%
57.4%
53.6%
37
LSU Tigers
-380
76.7%
70.5%
74.8%
N/A
Purdue Boilermakers
+315
23.3%
29.5%
25.2%
N/A
Penn State Nittany Lions
+120
44.2%
47.5%
45.2%
9
Utah Utes
-135
55.8%
52.5%
54.8%
N/A
TCU/Michigan
+170
35.7%
35.7%
35.7%
21
Ohio State/Georgia
-200
64.3%
64.3%
64.3%

Results

2022-2023 Bowl Season Pick Results

Pick Probability Confidence Result
UAB Blazers 77.2% 39 Win
Troy Trojans 51% 2 Win
Louisville Cardinals 51.7% 3 Win
Jackson State Tigers 87.4% 43 Loss
Oregon State Beavers 72.9% 34 Win
Fresno State Bulldogs 56.4% 10 Win
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 65.9% 26 Win
SMU Mustangs 64.2% 20 Loss
Boise State Broncos 78.1% 40 Win
Marshall Thundering Herd 78.8% 41 Win
San Jose State Spartans 65.1% 23 Loss
Toledo Rockets 63.2% 19 Win
South Alabama Jaguars 70.2% 30 Loss
Baylor Bears 68.5% 29 Loss
Houston Cougars 70.5% 31 Win
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 54.4% 8 Win
San Diego State Aztecs 67.9% 28 Loss
Bowling Green Falcons 58.1% 14 Loss
Georgia Southern Eagles 59.9% 15 Loss
Memphis Tigers 73.3% 35 Win
East Carolina Pirates 74.1% 36 Win
Wisconsin Badgers 58% 13 Win
Duke Blue Devils 50.4% 1 Win
Arkansas Razorbacks 61.4% 16 Win
Oregon Ducks 81% 42 Win
Ole Miss Rebels 62.3% 17 Loss
Minnesota Golden Gophers 72.6% 33 Win
Florida State Seminoles 71.1% 32 Win
Texas Longhorns 65.2% 24 Loss
Maryland Terrapins 56.5% 11 Win
UCLA Bruins 64.4% 22 Loss
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 57.2% 12 Win
Ohio Bobcats 52.8% 4 Win
Clemson Tigers 65.6% 25 Loss
Alabama Crimson Tide 62.7% 18 Win
Iowa Hawkeyes 54% 7 Win
Michigan Wolverines 76.6% 38 Loss
Georgia Bulldogs 66.4% 27 Win
Illinois Fighting Illini 52.9% 5 Loss
USC Trojans 53.6% 6 Loss
LSU Tigers 74.8% 37 Win
Utah Utes 54.8% 9 Loss
Ohio State/Georgia 64.3% 21 Win

2022-2023 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 946
Expected Points: 661.5 Actual Points: 598 Point Diff: -63.5
Projected Wins: 27.9 Actual Wins: 27 Win Diff: -0.9
Projected Losses: 15.1 Actual Losses: 16

2018-2019 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 583.9 Actual Points: 461 Point Diff: -122.9
Projected Wins: 26.0 Actual Wins: 20 Win Diff: -6.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 20

2019-2020 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 615.1 Actual Points: 672 Point Diff: +56.9
Projected Wins: 27.0 Actual Wins: 32 Win Diff: -5.0
Projected Losses: 14.0 Actual Losses: 9

2018-2019 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 583.9 Actual Points: 461 Point Diff: -122.9
Projected Wins: 26.0 Actual Wins: 20 Win Diff: -6.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 20

2017-2018 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 589.4 Actual Points: 494 Point Diff: -95.4
Projected Wins: 26.0 Actual Wins: 24 Win Diff: -2.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 17

2016-2017 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 645.2 Actual Points: 615 Point Diff: -30.2
Projected Wins: 28.0 Actual Wins: 26 Win Diff: -2.0
Projected Losses: 14.0 Actual Losses: 16

2015-2016 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 626.3 Actual Points: 678 Point Diff: +51.7
Projected Wins: 27.3 Actual Wins: 29 Win Diff: +1.7
Projected Losses: 14.7 Actual Losses: 13