Determining Probabilities

As sports statisticians, we realize that there are a million ways to come up with Streak for the Cash (STFC) selections. With accuracy as our top goal, we chose to employ two types of references when giving our probabilities.

The first is Vegas odds. The lines that the sportsbooks put out are, by far, the most powerful indicator on the outcome of a game. Bettors only need to win more than 52.5% of their bets to be profitable at the sportsbooks. While this seems simple, there are very few people who can consistently beat the sportsbooks at that rate. There is a reason that they are in business. Depending on the pick type, we can use either the money line or the spread to figure out the odds of a game. With Vegas odds, there are weaknesses as well. The real job of the bookmaker is to find the point at which the betting will be 50% on each side. Sometimes this doesn’t necessarily represent an accurate outcome for the game.

Of course, if we thought that Vegas was perfect then we have no use to use computer projections as well. For our computer projections, we currently only use one site which has a great reputation and provides us with all of the stats that we need to make our projections. What makes computer projections powerful is that they give predictions without any sort of human bias. This makes it a powerful tool, particularly when we let our emotions and team love get the best of us. Computer projections don’t come without downfalls either. Injuries, trades, weather, and other factors are sometimes not accounted for. These things can obviously greatly swing a game one way or another.

The consensus of these references is key. Typically we use the sportsbooks for 65% to 75% of our projection and the computer ratings for 25% to 35%. These could change depending on what information is available.

We hope you use this information to make the best picks possible. Good luck!

About Jeff Donchess

Jeff is an independent statistical consultant and the founder of A former midfielder with average speed and quickness, Jeff lacked the ability to play at any echelon of the soccer world. He lives vicariously through the true talent by predicting their games.