The Anatomy of Streaking – More on Longest Streak

Last time we discussed the odds of getting a streak of at least 40 wins.  We are going to continue the discussion but focus on the more attainable goal of getting the longest streak in a given month.

Streak Edge 3+ star picks

At Streak Edge, we recommend making selections on picks that are 3-star or better.  But are there enough of these for you to get a W40 streak in a month?  Below we have provided a breakdown by month of the number of 3+ star picks that were available.  We adjusted February and July to the expected total counts as we do not have a full month of data for either.

3 star and higher picks per month

Since some of these picks will overlap, it is impossible to make selections on all of them.  Even still, there should be enough where you could get a W40 if you start at the beginning of the month and carefully choose.  Although we cannot guarantee the number of these 3+ star picks will increase over time, we are working hard to cover as many matchups as possible.  Often the props that are most difficult to assign reasonable odds are the ones with greater disparity between the two picks.

Longest streak length

As noted before, the W40 may not be very realistic, but it’s definitely reasonable to try to get the longest streak in a month and win $30k.  In order to win the longest streak contest in any given month, you will need to target at least a W25 and probably closer to W30 in order to secure victory.  As seen below, only 4 times would you fail to win the $$$ with a W30.  But as more people continue playing the game, this target may increase.

Longest streak per month

Sometimes you have to take risks

Although we recommend 3-star or higher picks, it’s not always possible to find these picks when you need them.  If you start building your streak toward the end of the month, then there may not be enough to get you close to W40 (or even W30).  So what should you do if there are no good picks available?

As noted in my post (Are Streakers Wise?), 1 and 2 star picks where Streak Edge disagrees with the crowd are winning at a rate close to the 3-star picks.  So if you really need a pick and find a lower rated one where we disagree with the crowd, you might consider that a selection to make.  If you use this strategy, I would suggest trying to do a little research and identify why the difference occurs.  If you can confidently reconcile the difference and agree with Streak Edge then roll the dice. Also, try looking for things like injuries, late lineup changes, weather conditions, etc. that can cause gaps in the expectations.

If you are in the running for longest streak, then take a look at the leaderboard.  If it’s coming down to the wire and you’re behind then you absolutely need to take risks.  If you’re currently in the lead then just continue to monitor the leaderboard and available picks, and then take calculated risks when people start catching up with you or there is an easy pick available.

Most wins strategy

Next time we will discuss the strategies involved with getting the most wins.  Although resulting in less glory and money, this game within SFTC is the more interesting one to me.  I’ll explain why.

About Hugh Crews

Hugh is an independent statistical consultant and founder of Eligis Analytics. His love for sports statistics started at a young age when he would read player stats on the back of baseball cards.