The Anatomy of Streaking – Most Monthly Wins

In it to most win it

In the first two parts of this series we focused on getting a long winning streak. We will now switch gears to the second game which is the monthly wins challenge.  I like this game because it’s a much more about dedication than luck.  That being said you can’t take a day off if you want any shot of winning, and you’ll have to stay connected throughout the day to maximize your opportunities at wins.

What to expect

Each month is different, but in order to be in the running you will probably need to make over 200 picks and win around 130 in a month.  Per day, that is about 4.5 wins in about 7 tries. I have provided a historical look at average picks and wins per day in the graphic below.  It is clear that as the game has progressed, more effort is required to get the most wins in a month as early on you only needed around 3 correct picks per day whereas now you will need almost 4.5 (a 50% increase in effort). Winning percentages over time have varied around 64%.


Historical average wins/day for most monthly wins


Tips for getting the most monthly wins

  1. Have a game plan
  • After the last pick is finished each day, go ahead and make a pick for the next morning. You can also get up early to do this.
  • Each morning, look at all the daily props and lay out your approach for remainder of the day.
  • Visit Streak Edge and see which picks we make for the props you need to choose from. Compare with the crowd choice or do other research if you need to choose between multiple matchups.
  • Figure out what times you need to make decisions on forfeiting or making new picks.
  • Set alarms in your phone so you do not forget.
  1. Keep track of your matchups for status alerts, weather delays, etc.
  • Time (or picks) is your most valuable resource. Delays are costly.  Pushes are losses.
  • Don’t be afraid to forfeit in a weather delay. If you maximize your opportunities and follow Streak Edge picks, the wins will come.
  1. Think in terms of expected wins.
  • When game planning and making decisions on the fly, try to think about expected wins in the time frame. Don’t worry about whether the wins happen or not.  You cannot control that.  You can only maximize your chances of accumulating wins.
  • Consider creating a metric such as expected wins/hour to use for comparison purposes.
  1. Focus on matchups that take less time and/or can end early.
  • If picks are plentiful, then shorter props give you more opportunities to make other picks.
  • Look for props that end early and pick that side even if it’s not favored. If the event has not occurred before you need to make your next pick then just forfeit.
  • I cannot stress enough that your opportunities are limited so you need to do your best to increase them. Remember the target is 4.5 wins in 7 picks per day.
  1. Forfeits are free.
  • Other than a small hit in winning percentage, there is no penalty for forfeiting.
  • When given the option between making a pick now or one an hour later, always choose the one now. Worst case scenario, you can forfeit that pick and make the selection you were going to make otherwise. But in the meantime, your odds may have increased making the earlier pick already in progress actually the better pick.

A lesson in pick management

Next time we will discuss pick management some more and illustrate, with example, why you should focus on those in-game props that are often difficult to find odds.

About Hugh Crews

Hugh is an independent statistical consultant and founder of Eligis Analytics. His love for sports statistics started at a young age when he would read player stats on the back of baseball cards.